Happy Thanksgiving! While the tradition of the NFL lives on, we’ve also got some elite college basketball on today’s slate.
I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets of the day. Here’s what it came up with.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more NCAAB betting advice, featuring today’s Indiana vs. Gonzaga and BYU vs. Ole Miss games
Picks Summary
- Providence-Davidson Over 137 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mississippi State -7.5 (-110) at Bet365
- New Mexico -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Providence Friars vs. Davidson Wildcats
Thursday, November 28, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Imperial Arena
The AI Model likes Providence and Davidson to combine for 139 points. However, Caesars’s total for tonight’s game is currently at 137. That means the over is the best play in this game.
Davidson’s Ugly Defense
The Davidson Wildcats have allowed a 56.6% effective field goal percentage this season. Opponents have shot 42% from three and 52.7% from inside the arc. They’ve also earned just 16.3% of turnovers and have consistently sent teams to the foul line.
While Providence hasn’t shot well from three, the Friars take the three with high volume. They’ve got some outstanding shooters.
We can expect Providence to have a field day from deep but inside, as Providence has hit 59.5% from inside the arc.
Davidson Can Limit Turnovers
Davidson might need better looks against Providence. However, you can still expect Davidson to keep turnovers down and get to the foul line. More attempts from the field should help them stay at least a distance against Providence.
The Friars only have a 7.5% block rate and a 7.9% steal rate. Davidson just needs to get hot from the field for ten minutes. That would do it.
I’ll back the Over 137 in this one.
NCAAB Pick: Over 137 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. UNLV Rebels
Thursday, November 28, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Mullett Arena
The AI Model believes Mississippi State will add a 78-69 win over UNLV. However, the Mississippi Bulldogs are just -7.5 at Bet365. There’s legitimate value in the Bulldogs to cover the spread tonight.
Three Keys For Mississippi State
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have only turned the ball over 11.9% of the time this season. That’s one of the best rates in college basketball.
If that continues, they’ll be well on their way to a win.
Beyond that, the Bulldogs have added 33.6% from downtown. It’s not an elite rate, but the Bulldogs still take a lot of threes. They’ll go up against a UNLV defense that as watched teams shoot 35.8% from three this season. There’s a good chance Mississippi State gets good looks from three tonight.
The final key is on the glass. UNLV has earned just 29.2% of offensive rebounds per game. If UNLV can’t add second chances, it’ll be hard even to come close in this game.
Can UNLV Score Inside?
UNLV has had trouble rebounding. We’ve already talked about that. But the Rebels have also hit just 50.3% from inside the arc. It’s a below-average rate. Now they’ll face a Miss State defense that has given up only 47% from inside the arc this year.
UNLV won’t be good enough. Let’s ride with the AI Model and take Miss State at -7.5.
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New Mexico Lobos vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Thursday, November 28, 2024 – 11:30 PM ET at Acrisure Arena
The AI Model likes New Mexico to knock off Arizona State, 83-78. You’ll find New Mexico as a 4.5-point favorite in this game. The prediction of the AI Model would be enough for New Mexico to hold on against the spread.
Turnover Central!
The Arizona State Sun Devils have shot well to begin the season. They’ve hit a 55.9% effective field goal percentage and have hit 38.1% from three and 54.8% from inside the arc.
That said, they’ve also turned the ball over 18.6% of the time and have added only 27.7% of offensive rebounds.
Ultimately, New Mexico leads the nation in turnovers on defense, adding 25.1% of turnovers per game. These turnovers will destroy Arizona State’s chances of staying in this game.
New Mexico Can Score Inside
The New Mexico Lobos have shot 53.1% from inside the arc this season. They’re taking many shots from two-point range and scoring at a reasonable rate.
Meanwhile, Arizona State has allowed teams to hit 51.4% from inside the arc, which means it’s more likely that New Mexico will find success inside the arc.
Let’s ride with the Lobos at -4.5.
NCAAB Pick: New Mexico -4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
