After a slow day yesterday, we’re back with a monster slate of games in college basketball tonight. I instantly went to the AI Model and added three of its favorite bets to my betting portfolio.
I’ll add details as to why below.
Picks Summary
- Villanova -17 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Under 150 (-110) at Bet365
- Vermont +15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Columbia Lions vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
First, the AI Model has Villanova earning an 18-point win against Columbia. However, you can buy Villanova at -17 at Caesars. That’s an ideal play compared to the AI Model.
Columbia Is Already 1-0
The Columbia Lions defeated Loyola MD, 81-78. Columbia was expected to win that game. However, it’s still significant, mainly earning a win on the road.
Columbia got to the foul line a lot and hit 80% from the charity stripe. That said, Columbia didn’t rebound effective on offense and shot 30.4% from three. The defense also allowed Loyola MD to shoot 57.9% from inside the arc.
Against a Big East team like Villanova, there should be fewer foul shots and more shot-making.
Villanova Has Work To Do
Villanova was not perfect against Lafayette. They had a tougher matchup than Colombia but only won that game, 75-63.
Villanova turned the ball over nearly 25% of the time and rarely got to the foul line. Both of those should change in favor or Villanova against Columbia. After all, it’s hard to imagine Columbia shooting as well from three as Lafayette did against Villanova earlier this season.
Consider backing Villanova at -17 and -110 betting odds with the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Villanova -17 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Texas A&M-Commerce Lions vs. South Dakota Coyotes
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Sanford Coyote Sports Center
Our AI Model believes South Dakota and Texas A&M Commerce will combine for only 149 points. However, Bet365 has added a 150 number. The AI Model clearly favors the Under and believes the Under has value.
Texas A&M-Commerce Is Expected To Be Really Bad
The Texas A&M Commerce squad is currently ranked 359th in college basketball, per KenPom. The team lost 89-67 to Iowa after turning the ball over 31.3% of the time.
The offense rarely got to the foul line but still shot the ball well, hitting 57.9% of shots inside. The turnovers are the main issue.
They’ll take on South Dakota, who held Southern to a 47.7% effective field goal percentage. South Dakota only allowed 25% from three and earned 21.6% of turnovers.
You can expect the turnovers to be high against Texas A&M Commerce tonight.
A&M Commerce Was Good Enough Defensively
Although KenPom doesn’t have high hopes for A&M Commerce, they still held Iowa to a 52.9% effective field goal percentage. The defense limited foul shots and earned 18.3% of turnovers.
In addition, Iowa shot 34.5% from three and 53.7% from inside. These are high numbers but not brutal for a mid-major team facing a Big Ten squad.
I’ll rely on both defenses to help us to get to the Under.
NCAAB Pick: Under 150 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Vermont Catamounts vs. Auburn Tigers
Wednesday, November 06, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Neville Arena
The AI Model likes Vermont to only lose to Auburn by 15 points, 79-64. However, you can get Vermont at +15.5 at Caesars. There’s slight value in backing Vermont.
Vermont Already Won A Buy Game
The Vermont Catamounts went on the road and defeated UAB 67-62. Now they’ll try and drag that momentum into Auburn.
Vermont turned the ball over just 7.9% of the time against UAB. It also held UAB to no threes on ten shots.
Vermont’s rebounding wasn’t ideal. However, the defense held UAB to a 38.2% effective field goal percentage.
Auburn’s Defense Should Be Just As Good
The Auburn defense should be incredible this year. Last season, Auburn finished No. 1 in defensive effective field goal percentage, allowing just 42.9% from inside the arc.
But let’s not forget that it’s the first game of the season for Auburn. There are plenty of new faces, and that could at least hold Auburn back in the first game of the season.
Auburn is a team that typically likes to foul a lot. If that’s the case, in a low-scoring defensive game, Vermont should be able to cover thanks to the foul shots.
Give me Vermont at +15.5 here.
NCAAB Pick: Vermont +15.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
