We’re still waiting on one more spot in the NFC Divisional Round. However, we already have three matchups for this weekend’s NFL Playoffs. I asked the AI Model for its thoughts on those three games and listed the best bets for you to play at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Chiefs -7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Commanders/Lions Over 55.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Ravens/Bills Over 51.5 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Will The Chiefs Look Rusty?
The Kansas City Chiefs had a bye week in the playoffs and didn’t get to play last week. Additionally, the top starters didn’t play in Week 18, including Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and others.
Some are concerned that the Chiefs will be a bit rusty. However, I see it another way. The Chiefs were able to prepare and rest up for this matchup.
Kansas City has won back-to-back championships and wants to win a third consecutively. They’ve repeatedly suggested they’re going for a three-peat, so their heart is certainly in it. Ultimately, the Chiefs played poorly in last year’s regular season but played much better down the stretch to win a title. That’s likely what will happen this year.
Can Houston’s Offense Do Enough?
The Houston Texans earned a 32-12 win over the Chargers in the AFC Wild Card matchup. The defense was stingy and excellent. However, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense should be locked in. You won’t get four interceptions against Mahomes in a playoff game.
Plus, C.J. Stroud took a bit of a fall this season. He was terrific last season but never really developed into the bonafide stud some suggested he’d become. Don’t bet on Stroud to outplay Mahomes.
The Pick
Grab Kansas City at -7.5 in this game.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -7.5 (-110) at Bet365
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Will Washington Get Even One Stop On Saturday?
The Washington Commanders belong in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. However, let’s point out the obvious.
The Commanders have won many close games that could have gone either way. Their defense has also allowed 23 points per game and isn’t great except for its pass rush. The Commanders have made plays down the stretch, but against the Lions, it’s unlikely that’ll happen.
Detroit has scored 33.18 points per game this year. The offense has also averaged more than 260 yards in the air and an additional 146.35 yards on the ground. It’s a bonafide offense that Washington won’t stop.
Somehow, Washington Can Keep It Close
As I said, the Commanders like to stay in games, keep it close and make it all interesting.
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have scored over 28 points per game this season. The offense has averaged more rushing yards than Detroit, and Daniels has made some big plays with his arm lately.
The Lions’ defense is difficult to beat. However, Washington has been able to run the ball very effectively, making third—and fourth-down conversations much easier down the stretch. Don’t count out the Commanders. They’re always in games and have a good enough offense to stick with the Lions.
The Pick
Consider the Over 55.5 in this NFC playoff matchup.
NFL Pick: Commanders/Lions Over 55.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 19, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Who Should Win The MVP?
There’s been an ongoing conversation about who should win the MVP this season. Josh Allen is the favorite, but that’s ultimately because Lamar Jackson has won it multiple times.
Jackson threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He also rushed for more than 900 yards in the regular season and recorded another four rushing touchdowns.
On the other hand, Josh Allen threw for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns. He had just six interceptions and also rushed for 531 yards. Yet, he added 12 rushing touchdowns this season.
Both quarterbacks were electric, so it’s likely that both quarterbacks shine in this matchup.
How To Beat Each Defense
The Bills have allowed 226.06 yards in the air per game. The secondary has been weak, and missed tackles have been apparent. The run defense has also allowed 115.47 yards per game, which isn’t very good. Baltimore should have no problems getting down the field against this Buffalo defense.
On the other hand, the Ravens are the better defense. The secondary allowed 244.50 yards per game, but the run defense has held opponents to only 77.22 yards per game. It’s unlikely the Ravens hold the Bills to that low of a number. As long as Josh Allen makes smart decisions like he’s done all year, the offense should have a solid night.
The Pick
Take the Over 51.5 in a game between the two best quarterbacks this season.
NFL Pick: Ravens/Bills Over 51.5 (-110) at Bet365
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