The football season just ended with the Chiefs taking home the hardware for the second consecutive season while Lamar Jackson won his second MVP Award.
But that’s all in the past, let’s gaze into our crystal ball to get a glimpse of the future as we give our opinion on the NFL’s 2024 MVP, with the best odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review).
MVP Fun Facts
- Quarterbacks have 69.6% of the MVP Awards.
- A quarterback has won the last 11 MVP Awards.
- A wide receiver has never won the MVP Award.
- Adrian Peterson, in 2012, was the last running back to win the award.
- Only two defensive players, Alan Page in 1971, and Lawrence Taylor in 1986, have won the MVP Award.
- Kicker Mark Moseley (1982) was the only special teams player ever to win the award.
- The average age for the NFL MVP winner is 29, with 52.2% of the winners ranging between 26 and 31 years old.
- Jim Brown was the youngest player at 21 to ever win the MVP Award and he did so in its inaugural season of 1957.
- Tom Brady is the oldest player ever to win the award and he did so at age 40 in 2017.
- Peyton Manning has won the most MVP Awards with five, spanning 17 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos.
Top 10 of 2024
| Player | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs | +600 | +330 |
| Josh Allen – Bills | +800 | +500 |
| Lamar Jackson – Ravens | +1200 | +600 |
| C.J. Stroud – Texans | +1100 | +700 |
| Brock Purdy – 49ers | +1600 | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow – Bengals | +900 | +1500 |
| Sam Darnold – Vikings | +20000 | +1600 |
| Jared Goff – Detroit Lions | +4000 | +1700 |
| Jordan Love – Packers | +1600 | +1800 |
Strategically Speaking
If you’re going to plunk your cold, hard cash down on a prop or a future bet then you must think strategically. In this case, we know that a wide receiver has never won the award, which means a quarterback will likely take home the hardware yet again, with an outside chance that a running back will win the day.
Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill are all MVP-worthy candidates but the data tells us that none will win the award this year, or any other for that matter. And if we pivot to running backs, the only legitimate candidate is San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, but even he’s a long shot considering that quarterbacks own this award.
Therefore, we will list three categories of candidates to win the 2024 NFL MVP Award and they will be broken into Favorite, Contender, and Long Shot. Without further ado, let’s get down to business and render our opinions on these three candidates with MVP odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
The Favorite
Josh Allen (+700)
We understand the frustration fans have with Josh Allen. At times he does things only Patrick Mahomes can do but at other times he comes up short in the most critical moments. However, the Buffalo Bills’ signal-caller is on the precipice of breaking out and so too is his team. Let’s review Allen’s numbers last year.
- 17 GP
- Passing Yards 4,306 (No. 4)
- Passing TDs 29 (T-5)
- Passing Completion 66.5% (No. 11)
- Rushing Yards 524 (No. 4)
- Rushing TDs 15 (T-1)
Josh Allen is already a star and the oddsmakers are cold, calculating professionals who show no emotion when installing lines on teams and prices on players. They have Allen at +700, second only to Patrick Mahomes at +600, to win the 2024 MVP Award.
There is one caveat to our endorsement of Josh Allen. His top target, Stefon Diggs, took a step back last season and he will turn 31 this year. It’s no secret that the clock strikes midnight for running backs and wide receivers who turn 30 and Diggs is no exception.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Diggs is relegated to the trash heap, as he is still a premium target but another threat is critical for the Bills to contend for a Super Bowl and Allen to get the MVP that has eluded him thus far.
A veteran free agent like Tee Higgins or Mike Evans would be a step up from Gabriel Davis, and if the Bills add Florida State’s Keon Coleman with the 28th overall pick in the draft, now Buffalo’s cookin’ with gas.
The Contender
Dak Prescott (+1500)
I think we could take the first paragraph written about Josh Allen and replace his name with Dak Prescott. So, let’s do that, shall we?
We understand the frustration fans have with Dak Prescott. At times he does things only Patrick Mahomes can do but at other times he comes up short in the most critical moments. However, the Dallas Cowboys’ signal-caller is on the precipice of breaking out and so too is his team. Let’s review Prescott’s numbers last year.
- 17 GP
- Passing Yards 4,516 (No. 3)
- Passing TDs 36 (No. 1)
- Passing Completion 69.5% (No. 1)
- Rushing Yards 242
- Rushing TDs 2
I realize making fun of Jerry Jones and America’s Team has become a cottage industry for talk show hosts while giving non-Cowboy fans across the country a collective sense of schadenfreude but this team is built right. Laugh at your own peril because Dak Prescott could be the man with the plan next season and reward those with +1500 odds for those who kept the faith.
The Long Shot
Jahmyr Gibbs (+30,000)
The best rookie running back last season was not the 8th overall pick in the draft, Bijan Robinson, but the 12th pick who went to Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs. Yes, Miami’s rookie tailback, De’Von Achane, a third-round pick had an outstanding season as well.
However, Gibbs rekindled images of – dare we say it – Barry Sanders last season! We know that’s sacrilege in Motown, but a fact is a fact, and if you’ve got a hunch bet a bunch. Well, maybe not a bunch but this is a go big or go home kind of wager and one that would pay handsome dividends if it hits.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
