November is just about done, which means we have one more chance to profitably put the Over in our top NFL picks for Week 12.
It’s not easy to break even with a batch of three NFL picks, but we found a way. Our Week 11 Best Bets went 1-1-1, with the push coming courtesy of the Cleveland Browns (+8 away) in their 31-23 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Oh well; at least it was a matador push to keep us out of the red.
As it turns out, the Browns will be featured in our top pick for Week 12, but we won’t be taking them ATS this time – we’re taking three more cold November Overs, just like we did for our Week 10 Best Bets when we went 2-1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
It figures there would be a low total for this contest. Tampa Bay (Under 8-2) can’t seem to get it going on offense, and it’s supposed to rain in Cleveland this Sunday afternoon. But there’s something about this matchup people need to know:
Jacoby Brissett Belongs in the Pro Bowl
As sideways as things have gone for the 3-7 Browns, you can’t blame Deshaun Watson and his allergic reaction to towels. Brissett has played the best football of his career for Cleveland. He ranks fifth overall on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, one spot behind Buccaneers QB Tom Brady.
The Browns are also very good at running the damn ball. Nick Chubb (5.3 yards per carry) is an absolute beast, ranking second overall in rushing DVOA. Combine Brissett and Chubb with the No. 31-ranked defense in the league, and Cleveland has the Over at 7-2-1 this year.
As for the 5-5 Bucs, they’ll be reasonably well rested after taking the bye in Week 11, although they did have to play the Seattle Seahawks in Munich the previous week. And their red-zone defense hasn’t been nearly as good as their defense beyond the 20-yard line.
NFL Pick: Over 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at GEHA Field
It is getting a bit chilly in Tornado Alley, but there isn’t any precipitation in the forecast for Kansas City, so why wouldn’t we pound the Over here?
The Rams Have No Offense
Okay, that’s not ideal. Pretty much the entire offensive line is toast, both first- and second-stringers, and QB Matthew Stafford is questionable at best for Sunday after re-entering the league’s concussion protocol. It’s a lost season for the defending champs at 3-7.
That’s why we’re “buying low” on their totals. The Under was 6-2 before John Wolford got the start against Arizona in Week 10, and that game went Over 37.5 when the Cardinals won 27-17. And when Stafford returned last week against New Orleans, Over 39.5 was the right pick when the Saints won 27-20.
It might end up being third-stringer Bryce Perkins under center this week, but whoever it is, the Rams will be facing the best offense in football – and the No. 22-ranked defense.
Even if Kansas City has split the over/under this year at 5-5, they’re about to face their lowest total of the season, and they’ll be doing it against an L.A. defense that’s had its share of injuries as well.
NFL Pick: Over 43 (-109) at SugarHouse
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium
This is definitely the most contrarian bet of the three on our list, and again, Sunday’s forecast calls for rain in Charlotte, but that 36-point total is just too tempting to pass up.
It’s Darnold Time
Even if the Panthers (Under 7-4) are an absolute joke, there’s nowhere to go but up for their offense now that QB Sam Darnold is returning to duty. Baker Mayfield is dead-last on the passing DVOA charts, and P.J. Walker didn’t perform much better in his five starts.
Darnold was awful last year, too, but at least he was only second-last in passing DVOA in his first season with Carolina. He’ll be fresh after taking zero snaps thus far in 2022, and he won’t have to worry about Matt Rhule messing up the offense now that Steve Wilks is the interim head coach.
This game still features the Broncos (Under 9-1) and the fantastically awful Nathaniel Hackett-Russell Wilson regime. But again, Hackett has turned over the play-calling duties to Klint Kubiak, and while Under 41 cashed in for last week’s 22-16 defeat to visiting Las Vegas, that would be enough points to go Over this week. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Over 36 (-109) at SBK
