The NFL’s Week 14 schedule is a tough one to navigate as there could be up to 7 games where at least one backup quarterback is starting. But we have a bet for the game with the best backups right now going at it in Cincinnati. We also are looking at field goal props in New York and the 49ers to keep rolling as a scoring juggernaut against Seattle.
We make our best bets for Week 14 below, and you can always find these bets at our top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Texans-Jets Over 3.5 Total Field Goals Made (+120)
- 49ers Over 30.5 Points (+110)
- Colts-Bengals Both to Score 15+ Points (-115)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
There Will Be Field Goals in New York
We are already getting creative as we are looking at field goal props in the game between the Houston Texans (7-5) and New York Jets (4-8). They both played in games last week that saw 4 total field goals made, and that is the line we want to pick in this one too for over 3.5 total field goals made between the teams.
The Texans are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 33 points but bring on the kickers for us.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
C.J. Stroud’s Rare Season
C.J. Stroud is having a rookie quarterback season for the ages as he leads the NFL in passing yards (3,540) and ranks No. 3 in yards per pass attempts (8.5). But the Texans did suffer a big blow in Week 13 when they lost shifty receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending injury.
Stroud and the offense misfired on several drives and ended up settling for 3 field goals inside 40 yards. For the season, Houston is still only ranked 20th in red zone touchdown rate (52.4%), so this has been a weakness in the offense.
In fact, the Texans and Jets have both made 25 field goals this year, and the only teams with more are the Browns (30) and Cowboys (26).
The Texans are also going up against a formidable defense in the Jets that has only allowed 21 touchdowns and ranks No. 5 in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 42.4% of drives.
The Jets have forced a league-high 34 field goal attempts with 29 makes this year. So, with the way Houston moves the ball well but tends to stall in scoring range, the Texans should be a good pick for 2 or 3 field goals in this matchup.
Does Zach Wilson Even Want to Play?
The Jets will have another starting quarterback change after releasing Tim Boyle following his 2 failed starts. The team will either go with veteran Trevor Siemian, back to Zach Wilson, or they also just added Brett Rypien.
There was an odd story this week about Wilson declining to take back his starting job, confirming he is a member of Gen Z as there are players who would kill for the chance to start a game at quarterback in the NFL. But maybe Wilson sees his future with another team in 2024 and does not want to risk an Achilles injury on the MetLife playing surface that has already claimed a few this year, including Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, which is why this game is such a mess instead of a 4-time MVP against the eventual Rookie of the Year.
Anyways, the Jets have not scored more than 13 points in 6 straight games, so touchdowns are usually out of the question for this offense. If they are close enough for a field goal, they will almost certainly take it. The Jets made 2 field goals against Atlanta last week despite benching Boyle during the game for Siemian.
The Texans are not a lockdown defense to think the Jets can’t have a few field goal opportunities in this one no matter which quarterback they put on the field.
The Pick
Again, both teams should be able to make multiple field goals, or we could even see a 3-1 split favoring Houston to get to over 3.5 made field goals. When you play the Jets, it’s not like you expect to have to score many points to win, so DeMeco Ryans may be content to bypass some 4th downs he’d go for against better teams and just take the 3 points.
NFL Pick: Over 3.5 Total Field Goals Made (+120) at Bet365
49ers Keep Rolling with Brock Purdy
Remember when the 49ers were 5-0 and scoring 30 points every week to look like the best team in the NFL? Then they were stuck on 17 points every week in a 3-game losing streak that raised doubts. Well, they are back on that high-scoring domination stuff after beating the Eagles 42-19 in Philadelphia in one of the best wins by any team this season.
Brock Purdy has moved into the MVP favorite at the sportsbooks, but we’ll settle that debate another day. This is about putting up a healthy point total (over 30.5 points) at home against the Seahawks in a game where San Francisco is a 10.5-point favorite.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
49ers Clicking on All Cylinders
The 49ers are so lethal because of a strong line, Christian McCaffrey’s versatility and consistency, and a Marvel-like collection of super talents like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk.
But Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, is conducting this offense like a maestro on the field for Kyle Shanahan. The YAC plays that only someone like Deebo can produce were huge in Philadelphia as he is just so hard to tackle and has the speed to match the strength.
Throw in McCaffrey, who has a career-high rushing success rate of 55.2% in 2023, and this offense is always on track and in good position to keep scoring. It’s actually a miracle they were held to 17 in 3 straight games, but it was also a result of some injuries (Deebo and Trent Williams), some missed field goals by the rookie kicker, and just some bad or unlucky turnovers by Purdy.
The bye week came at a crucial time as the 49ers were able to get healthy, and since everyone came back, they have reeled off 4 dominant wins while scoring 34, 27, 31, and 42 points.
Seattle’s Defense Is No Match
These teams met in Week 12 and the 49ers won 31-13 on what wasn’t even the best night for Purdy. He threw for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and a pick-6 in the 3rd quarter. But the 49ers still managed 377 yards and 31 points on the road against a division rival.
Seattle’s defense has been even worse on the road this year, as it has allowed 31 points in 3 games in Baltimore, Detroit, and Dallas. The Dallas game last week, a 41-35 loss, saw the Seahawks get shredded by Dak Prescott and company. Dallas is about the only offense playing at a level higher than the 49ers right now, so do not be surprised if the 49ers light them up better than they did on Thanksgiving night.
Don’t forget what Purdy did in the last meeting against Seattle at home in the wild-card playoffs last year. He was a rookie and he passed for over 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, numbers not seen by a rookie quarterback in a playoff game since Sammy Baugh in 1937.
The Pick
The Seahawks are a struggling defense that just does not have the pass-rush talent or deep enough secondary to deal with such a talented offense like the 49ers. Shanahan has been getting the best of Pete Carroll for a few years now, and this should be another high-scoring win for the 49ers to all but wrap up the NFC West.
NFL Pick: 49ers Over 30.5 Points (+110) at Bet365
Gardner Minshew vs. Jake Browning Is What the People Want to See
Who led the only 4th-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in overtime in Week 13? That’s right, it was Gardner Minshew of the Colts and Jake Browning of the Bengals in a couple of the season’s most unexpectedly exciting games.
The Colts have been exceeding scoring expectations all year, but they are in an important game here with a 7-5 record against the 6-6 Bengals, who have some life now after an upset win in Jacksonville. The Colts are a 1-point road favorite with a total of 40 points, but we love a game prop for both teams to score at least 15 points.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Why the Colts Should Score 15 Points
Well, the Colts are averaging 25 points per game and have scored at least 20 points in every game but the Germany trip against the Patriots this year. That should be reason enough to think they should be good for 15 points against a Cincinnati defense that has been very leaky as of late.
In fact, Cincinnati has allowed the most yards on defense in the league and ranks 22nd in points allowed too. The Bengals even let the Steelers get over 400 yards of offense for the 1st time since 2020 in Week 12.
Cincinnati has allowed at least 16 points in every game but the win over Seattle where Geno Smith and the offense blundered several drives in the red zone. The nice thing about the Colts under rookie coach Shane Steichen is that they produce no matter if Jonathan Taylor is in or if it’s Zack Moss as the lead back. Gardner Minshew has had his moments this year too and should be reliable for at least 15 points on the road against a struggling defense.
Why the Bengals Should Score 15 Points
This one may be the trickier side, but it is hard not to believe the Bengals have something to cook with after Jake Browning’s huge win and performance in Jacksonville. He completed over 86% of his passes for 350 yards and even ran for a 21-yard gain and scored on a quarterback sneak.
The list of quarterbacks to have stat lines like he had is tiny and filled with MVP winners and Hall of Famers. Scrubs just don’t have games like this, and while it could go down as a 1-game wonder performance, one has to think he can at least be adequate in this game as the Colts have struggled on defense throughout the year too and just allowed 28 points to rookie quarterback Will Levis in Tennessee.
Helping Browning is that he has maybe the best wide receiver trio in the league after Tee Higgins returned to the lineup. But it was Ja’Marr Chase who again showed off his big-play ability with a 76-yard touchdown.
The Bengals also have Joe Mixon and Chase Brown in the backfield, and that duo combined for 129 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in Jacksonville against a solid defense.
The Pick
Is it the weather that has the lines looking so low on this matchup after the way these teams scored last week? It looks like it’ll be low-40 degrees and possibly some rain. But that doesn’t sound like anything these teams shouldn’t be used to.
We’ll trust Minshew and Browning to deliver at least 15 points each in what is suddenly an important game for the AFC wild-card race.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 15+ Points (-115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
