We’re headed to Week 14 of the NFL season!
This week, we’re back to regularly scheduled programming. Most games will be on Sunday! So, with that in mind, we asked the AI Model for its favorite bets for the week. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Jets/Dolphins Over 45.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Bills -4.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
The AI Model believes the Jets and Dolphins will score 47 points in Sunday’s game. However, the total is currently 45.5. Clearly, the over has value per our Model.
The Season Is Over For The Jets!
The New York Jets were expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Instead, the team has allowed 22 points per game and has given up 130 yards rushing. The defense has also allowed at least 26 points in three straight games and 25 points in four of their last five games. It’s exactly the opposite of what the Jets envisioned this year.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a more balanced offensive attack. The run game has added 110 yards on the ground, and the passing game is starting to develop behind Tua Tagovailoa.
Miami Can’t Afford Another Loss
At 5-7, the Dolphins probably can’t afford another loss. Not to the Jets. This offense will need to shine.
This season, Tagovailoa has added 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s been super smart with the ball and has a QBR inside the top 12 despite not playing for a period of the season. He also is coming off back-to-back 300+ yard performances in the air and has completed at least 71% of passes in six straight games.
The Pick
The Dolphins offense will lead the charge and get this game above the total.
NFL Pick: Jets/Dolphins Over 45.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
The AI Model predicts that Seattle and Arizona will score 43 points combined in Sunday’s game. However, Caesars Sportsbook currently has a total of 45. The under is the play in this one.
Seattle’s Three-Game Winning Streak
The Seattle Seahawks have won three straight games. They’re now 7-5 on the season and a clear playoff contender. That said, the Seahawks have added a .18 differential this season between points for and against. Analytically, they’re ultimately a .500 team.
Seattle can throw the ball well with Geno Smith. Yet, the running game has earned only 89.09 yards per game on the ground this season. Arizona has held teams to 121.82 yards on the ground. That’s not a good rate. But Arizona likely won’t give up more than 100 yards on the ground to the Seahawks in this game.
The three-game winning streak could be in jeopardy on the road against a divisional rival.
Can Arizona Flip The Script?
The Arizona Cardinals have a slightly higher differential. They, too, are a .500 team analytically. Funny enough, the Cardinals are also 6-6 and literally a .500 ball club.
The offense has scored 22.18 points per game but gained just 201.73 yards in the air. The Cardinals are a run-first offense, which will only help time tick away in this rivalry game.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the Under 45. Both teams are good enough defensively to keep this one close, especially in a rivalry matchup.
NFL Pick: Seahawks/Cardinals Under 45 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Our AI Model suggests the Bills will dominate the Rams with a seven-point win. However, the Bills are only -4.5 against the spread heading into this game. There’s plenty of value in Buffalo here.
The Bills Are Dangerous
The Buffalo Bills have scored nearly 30 points per game this season. They’re also 10-2 and on a long winning streak, including wins over last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East. However, they’re looking to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They’re not there yet and might need to win out to earn that feat.
The Bills should be able to take advantage of the Rams’ secondary tonight. After all, the Rams have allowed nearly 215 yards in the air and simply don’t tackle well. The Bills are one of the most complete offenses in the NFL, including the offensive line. The Rams have a good pass rush, but the Bills can prevent some pressure.
Stafford Will Taste Grass
Matthew Stafford has had a good season. However, he will likely be hit and sacked several times in this game.
The Rams haven’t protected him well enough, so he will now face a Bills pass rush that is typically really good. Buffalo will send pressure and create some havoc.
The Pick
I love the Bills at -4.5. This team is a Super Bowl contender.
NFL Pick: Bills -4.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
