There are only three more weeks of the NFL regular season. This is where we find out who the pretenders and the contenders are. The AI Model also helped us with this and projected each game of Week 16. Here are three bets that look valuable at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Patriots/Bills Over 46 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Rams -3 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- 49ers +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
The AI Model believes the Patriots and Bills will combine for 50 points. However, the total is currently set at 46. The Over has the value.
A Juggernaut Offense
The Buffalo Bills have scored more than 30 points per game this season. Josh Allen is currently the MVP of the NFL season and has the best QBR in the league.
Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in eight straight games against legitimate NFL playoff teams, including the Lions, Rams, 49ers, Chiefs, and others. If they can’t stop the Bills, how will the Patriots?
Scouts Love Drake Maye
There have been reports of scouts salivating over Drake Maye’s potential. The Patriots don’t have a great wide receiver core, but Maye has at least given the Patriots some direction heading into next year.
The Patriots have scored at least 17 points in six of their last seven games. If the Patriots get 17 in this game, the Bills should be able to do enough to help this game get over the total.
The Pick
I’m with the AI Model. Let’s back the Over 46 in this one.
NFL Pick: Patriots/Bills Over 46 (-110) at Bet365
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
The AI Model believes the Rams will add a 26-20 victory on the road over the Jets. The Rams are hot, while the Jets are already out of playoff contention. Consider the Rams at -3.
Why Did The Jets Win Last Week?
The Jets were in position for a solid draft pick in the 2025 draft if they just lost out the rest of the way. However, New York rallied to knock off the Jacksonville Jaguars, 32-25, and now have four wins. Aaron Rodgers has played well. However, the defense has been lackluster and certainly hasn’t exceeded expectations this season.
That said, the Jets have still only scored 19.31 points per game this season. That’s hard to believe with the offensive talent this roster has. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed 23.08 points per game and has allowed nearly 120 yards on the ground.
I know everyone wants to keep their jobs for next year, but it’s in the Jets’ best interest to lose out the rest of the way. They probably don’t need help with losing this week, anyway.
Winners In 3 Of The Last 4
The Los Angeles Rams have won three of the last four games. They’re getting the job done every which way. They knocked off the Bills, 44-42 at home, and then added a 12-6 win against the 49ers on the road. The defense can show up, or the offense can show up. If it’s a shootout, the Rams will be ready. If it’s a slugfest, they’ll also be ready.
Good teams can beat you in multiple ways. That’s what the Rams do.
The Pick
I’m on the Rams at -3.
NFL Pick: Rams -3 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Our AI Model suggests the San Francisco 49ers will only lose to the Miami Dolphins, 24-22. Since the 49ers are +2.5, taking San Francisco against the spread is the best option.
The 49ers Are Still Better!
San Francisco and Miami each had pathetic offensive outings last week. Both teams combined for only 20 points in Week 15 in their losses.
However, analytically and statistically, the 49ers have been more consistent. While San Francisco is down to their No. 3 running back, the 49ers have still added 133.50 yards per game on the ground. Compared to Miami’s 105.23 yards per game, San Francisco has the better run game.
Additionally, the Dolphins have looked awful against the pass this season. While Miami has allowed just 212.77 yards in the air, the secondary has been beaten for big play after big play this season. Brock Purdy should be able to take advantage of this.
Does Tua Tagovailoa see Ghosts?
Miami’s quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, threw one passing touchdown and three interceptions with less than 200 yards passing in a loss to the Houston Texans last week.
It’s not going to get any easier against the 49ers’ defense, which has allowed only 181 yards per game in the air this season. The 49ers have a much better pass defense and tackled more consistently than Miami, which isn’t hard to do.
The Pick
I’m on the 49ers at +2.5.
NFL Pick: 49ers +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
