We’re headed to Week 4 of the NFL season. There have been so many outright upsets to begin the season. Ultimately, no team shows its identity until halfway through the regular season. When you think you know what a team is, they’ll surprise you early in the year.
Keep that in mind when making your NFL Week 4 picks. Here are three plays you’ll want to consider for this weekend’s action.
Picks Summary
- Saints-Falcons Under 45.5 (-110)
- Rams ML (+100)
- Steelers -2 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Back To Reality
The New Orleans Saints scored on every drive that Derek Carr orchestrated in the season’s first two games.
But reality set in after the Saints scored just 12 points in a 15-12 loss to the Eagles. The defense showed up and hasn’t allowed more than 19 points in any game this season.
However, the offense gained just 12 first downs and earned only 219 yards of offense in the entire game against the Eagles.
That’s alarming.
Atlanta’s Defense Has Given The Falcons Chances
Although the Falcons are 1-2 to start the season, their defense has given them a chance to win every game.
The Falcons have held all three opponents to a maximum of 22 points per game. However, the Falcons’ offense has been mediocre to begin the season.
Against the Chiefs in Week 3, the Falcons earned more than 300 yards of offense but only came away with 17 points. That’s inexcusable, and it continues to happen with this team to begin the season.
Atlanta has averaged 185 yards in the air and only 120.50 yards on the ground. So it’s clear the defense is way ahead of the offense regarding production.
NFL Computer Picks
Therefore, let’s back the Under 45.5 in this game. It’ll be a rivalry matchup between two teams that have shown more consistency on defense than offense this season.
NFL Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
The Los Angeles Rams Always Find a Way
Over the weekend, the Los Angeles Rams stunned the San Francisco 49ers with a 27-24 win to earn their first game of the season.
The wins didn’t come with Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp. Instead, Tutu Atwell led the charge in the passing game, and Kyren Williams dominated the run game to earn the victory.
Behind Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, the Rams always find a way when shorthanded.
It’ll Take Time For Caleb Williams
The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft has already thrown four interceptions in two games.
Caleb Williams is sitting in the pocket too long and taking hit after hit while making mistakes.
This isn’t college, but he’s treating these games like it is. Thanks to a horrific offensive line, he’s overthrown receivers drastically and continues to get beat up.
NFL Computer Pick
Let’s grab the Rams on the road at +100. Even though last weekend’s win was a home game, there were more Niners fans than the Rams. They ultimately play road games every week. They’ll be ready.
NFL Pick: Rams ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Pittsburgh’s Dominant Start
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-0 to begin the season. While they’ve only scored 15.5 points per game, they’ve allowed just 8 points this year.
The offense hasn’t gained a ton of yards behind Justin Fields, but he’s added timely plays to help the Steelers win each game.
Look for the run game to be a major factor against the Colts. Pittsburgh has averaged 139 yards on the ground per game, and the Colts have given up 237 yards per game on the ground to start the season.
Can’t Trust Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson has played three games for the Colts this season. In those three starts, he’s thrown six interceptions. That’s historically bad for the second-year quarterback.
The Colts have still gained 198.5 yards in the air per game but have averaged 122 yards on the ground. The ground game is likely where they’ll find more success, but they haven’t so far.
NFL Computer Pick
Let’s back the Steelers at -2 (-110).
NFL Pick: Steelers -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
