Bad news, everyone: We only cashed in two of the three NFL picks in our Week 6 Best Bets. That’s got to be disappointing after all those weeks of 3-0. Blame the Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints for getting into that 30-26 shootout (Over 42.5) at the Superdome. Stupid climate control.
We’ll dry our tears with all these Benjamins. In the meantime, we’ve got three more picks coming your way for Week 7, and this time, we’ve got another close-your-eyes underdog leading the pack.
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Monday, October 24, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Betting against Bill Belichick always seems wrong, even if he doesn’t have Tom Brady under center anymore. And there’s no question the Bears (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) are one of the worst teams in football: No. 31 on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, to be specific.
Why The Bears?
But here we are with the Bears getting nine points at SBK, a tasty deal considering they’re +8 at most locations as we go to press. Anything over the magic number seven looks good in what promises to be a low-scoring matchup, with the total set at 39.5 points and rain in the forecast for Monday morning.
There are things to like about Chicago besides deep-dish pizza (okay, it’s really a casserole, but it’s damn tasty). The Bears defense ranks No. 14 against the pass, and they’ve got some of the best kicking (Cairo Santos) and punting (Trenton Gill) in the league.
Those two gentlemen figure to be extra busy Monday night, given how awful QB Justin Fields has been. He’s dead-last in passing DVOA at Football Outsiders, while Tom Brady is somehow in eighth place despite his depleted offensive line and receiving corps.
The Betting Pick
Brady’s Bucs are also first in the NFC South despite going 3-3 (2-4 ATS). They’ve dropped each of their last four games ATS, and three of four straight-up.
It’s almost enough for us to put Tampa Bay on our Week 7 Upset Alert, but the Bears are a better value at +9. Ditka… Ditka… Polish sausage… Ditka.
NFL Pick: Bears +9 (-109) at SBK
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
We had the Broncos on our Week 6 Upset Alert, and they almost got the job done before losing 19-16 to the Los Angeles Chargers in overtime. We’ll let it slide, more importantly for this week, Denver extended their under record to 5-1.
We expect more of the same Sunday afternoon. The offense/defense split with Denver is about as Jekyll and Hyde as you can get, with the offense ranking No. 27 in DVOA and the defense second. Their special teams have also been ugly in just about every facet aside from punt returns.
Even better, it looks like QB Russell Wilson is going to force his way onto the field despite being hobbled by a gimpy hamstring, which got progressively worse during that loss to the Chargers. If Wilson doesn’t play, that’s fine; Brett Rypien is his backup, and he’d be coming in on a short week.
The Betting Pick
On the other side, you have the Jets, who have split the totals down the middle at 3-3. That includes 2-1 since Zach Wilson made his season debut, so we’re going to recommend sizing down this bet just a little – but you’re still looking at a team with the No. 12-ranked defense in the NFL. It should look even better facing Denver.
NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-107) at PointsBet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Dang it, Kansas City didn’t quite come through for our Week 6 upsets, either, but that’s okay – we made a profit anyway. The Buffalo Bills had to scramble to beat K.C. 24-20. And while that game went Under 54, we’re taking the other side for Sunday’s matchup with the Niners. Yes, the same Niners who have the Under at 5-1 this year.
Well, not exactly the same Niners. Their defense got shredded by injury two weeks ago in that 37-15 win over the Carolina Panthers (Over 39.5), and they lost safety Talanoa Hufanga to a concussion in Sunday’s 28-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons (Under 46).
The Betting Pick
That should make life a bit easier for Patrick Mahomes and the No. 2-ranked offense in the nation. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Kansas City’s defense ranks No. 28 on the DVOA charts.
They’re the Bizarro Broncos. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Over 48 (-107) at SugarHouse
