There are certainly a few NFL bets that I’m eying this week. But before I placed my bets at the top-rated sportsbooks, I went to the AI Model to confirm my thoughts with the AI Model. Below are three bets where my thoughts and the AI model match up. After last week’s 2-1 record, let’s have another outstanding week in the NFL.
Picks Summary
- Texans +3 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Lions ML (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Eagles/Giants Under 45.5 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
The AI Model believes the Houston Texans will only lose to the Green Bay Packers by one point, 24-23. However, you can find the Texans at +3. The Texans are 5-1 and are underdogs in Green Bay. I’ll bite and grab the Texans at +3, along with the AI Model.
Not Impressed With Green Bay
The Packers have won their last two games over the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. They’ve also got wins against Indianapolis and Tennessee. It’s possible that Green Bay hasn’t defeated a playoff contender this season.
Jordan Love is a terrific quarterback with a lot of big-playmaking ability. However, he’s also thrown six interceptions and has completed only 58.9% of his passes this season.
The Texans should be able to force some turnovers and win the turnover battle, with C.J. Stroud being the more efficient quarterback in this game.
No Nico Collins, No Problem
The Texans will be without Nico Collins for at least another three weeks. However, last week, without him, the Texans still scored 41 points against the Patriots in a 41-21 win.
While Love and the Packers are offensive juggernauts, so are the Texans. However, the Texans have been much better on special teams and are more consistent offensively.
The Pick
This game comes down to the turnover battle and special teams. Houston has the Packers beat in both, despite being on the road.
NFL Pick: Texans +3 (-110) at Bet365
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Lions will add a 27-24 win over the Vikings on Sunday. After a dominant win over the Cowboys, Detroit looks like the team to beat in the NFC, despite the Vikings sitting at 5-0 and undefeated. Consider the Lions at +105 on the road in this one.
Are The Vikings Overrated?
It’s hard to be overrated as a 5-0 team. However, the Vikings and their analytics don’t really check out. The team hasn’t had the best pass rush and has statistically missed a lot of tackles this season. Additionally, Sam Darnold is getting a lot of credit. However, his quarterback play could be better. He’s got a QBR of 59.6, which is only 15th in the NFL. He’s also 19th in passing yards. So let’s hold the breaks on Sam Darnold.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ pass rush got weaker. Aiden Hutchinson broke his leg and needed immediate surgery during the win against the Cowboys. Still, Detroit mixes up schemes and should still pressure Darnold in this game.
How Good Is Detroit’s Offense?
The Lions have scored at least 42 points in two consecutive weeks and have added 89 points in the last eight quarters. That’s more than ten points average per quarter over the previous two weeks.
Again, the Vikings have still missed a lot of tackles, and if Jared Goff has time in the pocket like he should, he’ll make some big-time throws to help push the Lions past the Vikings on the road.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the Lions at +105 on the road.
NFL Pick: Lions ML (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Our AI Model has the Giants and Eagles combining for 42 points in Sunday’s rivalry matchup. With the total currently at 45.5, the Under looks to be the play in this game.
Don’t Get Fooled By The Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles vowed how much the bye week would push them in the right direction. Philadelphia got healthy, with DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Lane Johnson back in the lineup.
 Yet, Philadelphia narrowly escaped the Cleveland Browns after an entire bye week to prepare. The Eagles haven’t scored more than 21 points in four consecutive games and are now 2-2 in their last four.
Meanwhile, the Giants might be the most difficult defense they’ll play all year. New York’s defense held Cincinnati to 17 points. It was two defensive breakdowns that led to the two touchdowns. But overall, the Giants look elite defensively, specifically on the defensive line.
New York Doesn’t Finish
The Giants can get down the field. The team just doesn’t know how to finish drives. In addition, New York continues to get in 3rd-and-short and 4th-and-short but struggles to find plays that work. It was the same old against the Bengals in the 17-7 game.
The Giants have played in many tight, winnable games but are coming up empty-handed in most of them. Don’t be surprised if that happens against their divisional rival this weekend.
The Pick
I’m on the Under 45.5 with the AI Model.
NFL Pick: Eagles/Giants Under 45.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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