The NFL’s Week 9 schedule has several epic games, including Chiefs-Dolphins, Cowboys-Eagles, Seahawks-Ravens, and Bills-Bengals. We are covering exactly none of those games here because we want to take a walk on the wild side as the season moves into November.
The opportunity to bet on Clayton Tune and Jaren Hall, who probably won’t make it to Week 10 as starting quarterbacks, is too good to pass up. Also, Josh McDaniels was just fired by the Raiders, so what if the team finally plays like it should?
We make our best bets for Week 9 below, and you can always find these bets at OddsTrader’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Browns to Win Both Halves vs. Cardinals (+150)Â
- Vikings-Falcons to Both Score 15+ Points (+130)Â
- Raiders Over 20.5 Points (+115)
*Odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Myles Garrett About to Break Clayton Tune
It may only be Week 9, but we have apparently reached the Clayton Tune vs. P.J. Walker part of the season. It could be Deshaun Watson too, but either way, we are enjoying the prospects for the 8-point favorite Browns so much that we want to take the game prop that they will win both halves in this one.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Who Is Clayton Tune?
Clayton Tune is preparing to make his first start in the NFL after the Cardinals traded Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings on Tuesday. It appears Kyler Murray is getting closer to returning from his ACL recovery, but with Dobbs out, it should be Tune this week in Cleveland.
Tune is a 5th-round rookie out of Houston where he was a poor man’s Case Keenum with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He had 3 400-yard passing games against SMU if anyone is keeping count.
But this is a tough assignment for your first NFL start as Myles Garrett and the defense have been swarming at times this season. They even tricked Geno Smith into a couple of interceptions last week, and earlier this season, the Browns held Joe Burrow and Ryan Tannehill to 3 points each.
While Dobbs helped Arizona to a ridiculous backdoor cover against the Ravens last week, Arizona’s offense has largely been struggling the last few weeks. After upsetting the Cowboys, the 1-7 Cardinals spent a whole month without being able to score 21 points in a game.
Take away Dobbs’ experience and Tune should be in for a long afternoon. The only way the Browns blow this one is if the offense has obscene turnovers like it had in the losses to the Steelers, Ravens, and Seahawks this year.
Deshaun Watson Back?
The Browns are hoping Deshaun Watson can return to action this week from his shoulder injury that has led to P.J. Walker starting the last 3 games. While Walker helped in wins over the 49ers and Colts, he is only completing 49.5% of his passes, which is abysmal in 2023. He also has a 22.7 QBR that would rank him among the worst in the league in any season since 2006.
Watson has not done a good job for Kevin Stefanski’s offense going back to last year, but he is still better than Walker. Ever since the bye week, the Browns have picked up their running game with 150 yards on the ground in 3 straight games.
Give Watson a running game like that to go along with Amari Cooper and David Njoku, and this star-lacking defense from the Cardinals will be in trouble.
The Pick
We are largely trusting the Cleveland defense to dominate this one at home against a rookie quarterback making his 1st start on a bad offense. In their last 10 halves, the Cardinals are 1-8-1.
Let’s make that 1-10-1 and back the Browns to win both halves.
NFL Pick: Browns to Win Both Halves (+150) at Bet365
The Jaren Hall vs. Desmond Ridder Shootout We All Expected
This would be a more interesting battle of 4-4 teams in the NFC race if Kirk Cousins had not torn his Achilles last week to end his season. Now, the Vikings must turn to rookie Jaren Hall at quarterback until Joshua Dobbs, who they traded for on Tuesday, is ready to take over.
But with the Falcons also needing a big game at home after losing an ugly one in Tennessee, they need to light up the scoreboard too so that Desmond Ridder can keep his job.
We are taking the opportunity to bet on Hall to help the Vikings score enough points so that both teams hit at least 15 on the scoreboard.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Why the Vikings Will Score 15 Points
Minnesota has scored at least 17 points in every game this season, and the Vikings have reached that total in 23 of coach Kevin O’Connell’s 25 career games. Of course, he had Kirk Cousins at quarterback in each of those games, but he is a former Sean McVay assistant and knows how to coach up an offense.
Notice how the Vikings were still doing well with scoring without Justin Jefferson, an elite wide receiver. There will be hiccups with Jaren Hall, who lost a fumble in Green Bay last week when he had to come off the bench. But they’ve had all week to prepare him, and he gets an Atlanta defense that just allowed Tennessee rookie Will Levis to throw 4 touchdowns in his first NFL game, tying a record for a debut.
That’s not to say Hall is going to repeat what Levis did, but he still has talent around him, as Jordan Addison has been developing well at wide receiver, and T.J. Hockenson is a reliable target at tight end.
The Vikings may not score much more than 15 points, but that is a low bar to clear against an Atlanta team that has allowed at least 19 points in 6-of-8 games this year.
Why the Falcons Will Score 15 Points
The Falcons have scored at least 15 points in 16 straight home games under coach Arthur Smith. Desmond Ridder has better numbers across the board at home than he does in road games. He’ll have to play much better than he did last week when he did not finish the game.
Atlanta has too many good skill players to not take advantage of a blitz-happy, middling Minnesota defense that lets quarterbacks complete 72.2% of their passes this season. The Vikings play a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but the defense needs to be better in situational play as it ranks 26th on 3rd down and 21st in the red zone.
The Vikings have allowed 5-of-8 opponents to clear 15 points this year. Oddly enough, the 3 teams they held under 15 were all road games against inexperienced quarterbacks like Bryce Young, Jordan Love, and the game where Justin Fields was injured and gave way to rookie Tyson Bagent for Chicago.
The Pick
Ridder is also relatively inexperienced and playing at home too, but in a game between 2 offensive-minded coaches, you should like enough offense to win out for both teams to hit 15 points.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 15+ Points (+130) at Bet365
Will Raiders Have Best Offensive Showing of Season?
Not a trick but a treat. The Raiders have fired head coach Josh McDaniels halfway through his 2nd season in a 6-year contract. After one of the ugliest offensive performances in franchise history on Monday night, the Raiders can move on with a fresh start.
There are still big problems in Las Vegas, but they have a chance to show up their former coach with a good game against a bad Giants team. We are looking to see if the Raiders can match their season high in scoring with 21 points.
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium
Good Riddance to Josh McDaniels
The Raiders lost so many games in embarrassing fashion under McDaniels that it was clear he had to go. Last year, this team lost to Jeff Saturday, a coach with no prior coaching experience, and they lost to Baker Mayfield, a quarterback who signed with the Rams 48 hours prior to the game. The Raiders blew a league-high 6 leads in the fourth quarter, and this year they lost wire-to-wire to the Bears with Tyson Bagent, a Division II rookie quarterback.
Monday night against Detroit was the final straw as the Raiders scored just 1 offensive touchdown in a 26-14 loss. In 8 games this season, the Raiders only topped 18 points one time, and even that game deserves an asterisk. They only got to 21 points against the Patriots thanks to a late safety. The offense has been held under 20 points in all 8 games this season, something no other NFL team has done to start a season since the 2009 Redskins.
But even those Redskins dropped 27 points in their 9th game to end the streak. We have seen teams get a little boost in the first game after firing their embattled head coach during the season:
- The 2015 Eagles beat the Giants 35-30 after firing Chip Kelly.
- The 2018 Packers beat the Falcons 34-20 after firing Mike McCarthy.
- The 2020 Texans beat the Jaguars 30-14 after firing Bill O’Brien.
- The 2020 Lions beat Chicago 34-30 after firing Matt Patricia.
- The 2021 Raiders beat Denver 34-24 after firing Jon Gruden.
- The 2022 Broncos still lost to the Chiefs after firing Nathaniel Hackett, but it was a 27-24 final.
- The 2022 Colts beat the Raiders 25-20 after firing Frank Reich.
Nothing summed up the frustration of the Raiders on Monday night better than Davante Adams slamming his helmet on the sideline after another failed drive. With the twice-fired coach now out of the building, maybe the Raiders will have their best showing yet this season.
It helps that they’ll be playing the Giants.
The Giants Are Bad Too
Can the Giants start playing real football again? Their last 2 games have been an unbelievable bore to watch for offense. In games against the Commanders and Jets, the Giants have seen 44 points scored on 61 possessions. These would be awful numbers for the 1930s, let alone in 2023.
While the Giants have been playing better defense in the last month, they still rank 22nd in points allowed and 29th in rushing yards per carry. Maybe this can be a big game for Josh Jacobs, who finally broke 4.0 yards per carry in a game on Monday night in Detroit, arguably his best rushing performance this season.
Maybe the Raiders can dial up some plays against a New York blitz that comes frequently, and maybe Jimmy Garoppolo won’t miss the wide-open bombs to Adams this week.
The Pick
If this game was played at night, it might end 3-3 in overtime. But as a game buried in the late-afternoon slot that few will be watching, we think the Raiders might finally smile and have some fun in a game against a bad opponent now that the tyrant is no longer the coach.
Maybe the Raiders will finally score 21 points in a game without the help of a safety this week for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Raiders Over 20.5 Points (+115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
