It finally happened: Our first losing week of the 2022 NFL regular season. Our Week 8 Best Bets went 1-2, with the Cleveland Browns preventing the sweep Monday night by beating the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 as 3-point home dogs. It feels like we should get extra credit for that one.
Sadly, the New York Giants (+3 away) couldn’t keep up their winning ways, falling 27-13 to the Seattle Seahawks in a competitive battle. And that ugly Arizona-Minnesota matchup we were hoping for didn’t materialize; the Cardinals and Vikings got into a mini-shootout that Minnesota won 34-26 (Over 49).
No use crying over spilled profits. Our Best Bets are still 19-5 on the season, and that Browns victory ties in very nicely with what we’ve got in store for Week 9.
Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium
We’ve put our money on some very bad teams in this space, so maybe it isn’t so crazy that we’re recommending Carolina (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) for your football picks. They’re getting 7.5 points as we go to press, and they’ll be playing the aforementioned Bengals (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS), who had their five-game ATS streak snapped by Cleveland.
Not the Same Panthers
Right off the bat, we have to remind you that Matt Rhule is no longer Carolina’s head coach. Steve Wilks has taken over on an interim basis, and although Wilks didn’t fare so well in his one-year stint with Arizona back in 2018, the important thing is that he’s not Matt Rhule.
The Panthers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS since making the switch, including their 21-3 upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13 away) in Week 7. And they came within an eyelash of beating the Atlanta Falcons (-4.5 at home) last Sunday, losing 37-34 in overtime.
Much has been said about Carolina jettisoning RB Christian McCaffrey (now with San Francisco) and WR Robbie Anderson (now with Arizona) as they get an early start on their rebuild. But those skill positions are generally over-valued in the betting market. Life continues apace.
As for the Bengals, they’ve got the same issues on offense that made us choose Cleveland last week, and they’ll be playing on a short week of rest. Darn right we’re taking those 7.5 points.
NFL Pick: Panthers +7.5 (+100) at PointsBet
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
If you’ve been following our progress this year, you’re probably expecting us to recommend the Jets as 12.5-point home dogs versus the Bills. That’s actually a very good bet as well, but we think the Under has even more value with the total at 46.5 on the NFL odds.
Tough Defenses
First, you have the Jets (Under 5-3), who head into Week 9 with the No. 21-ranked offense and the No. 8-ranked defense on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders. The only bugaboo here is that they sent DE Jacob Martin to Denver at the trade deadline, but New York has ample talent (Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, et al.) left on the line.
Then you have the Bills (Under 6-1), who check in at No. 4 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. They have yet to allow more than 21 points in a game this year; the only time they went Over was in Week 2, and that was by a single point when they blew out the Tennessee Titans 41-7 (Over 47).
Scoring like that against the Jets should be a lot more difficult – even if we’re not getting any help from Sunday’s weather forecast, which calls for overcast skies and warm temperatures in East Rutherford.
NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-105) at PointsBet
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Under Courtesy of the Chargers
Here’s another tasty Under pick, although the Falcons (Over 5-3) don’t look the part at first blush, with the league’s No. 9 offense and No. 31 defense. This is more about the Chargers (Over 4-3), who rank No. 16 on both sides of the ball.
Yes, the Chargers’ offense is mid. This might be a bit of a surprise with Justin Herbert at quarterback, but L.A. can’t run the ball for beans, and Herbert might not have top wideout Keenan Allen (hamstring) to throw at this Sunday.
There are plenty more injuries for the Bolts offense where that came from – and you can add PK Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) to the pile. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Under 49.5 (-105) at MaximBet
