Tonight’s NHL playoff games see us kick things off in Florida as state rivals come head-to-head in the first round of this season’s playoffs, with the Florida Panthers holding a 2-1 series lead.
Elsewhere, we are targeting the Dallas Stars as home underdogs to get things done against the Colorado Avalanche.
The Picks
- Lightning-Panthers Over 5.5 (-110)
- Stars ML (+125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Amerant Bank Arena
Panthers Leading Series Thus Far
The Florida Panthers might hold a 2-1 series lead, but back on home ice tonight, they are aiming for their first win at home in this year’s playoffs, having won both games on the road. The first game at the Amerant Arena saw the Tampa Bay Lightning come away as 5-1 winners with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guntzel scoring 3 points each.
Let’s not forget the recent history at stake here, the Tampa Bay Lightning were back-to-back winners of the Stanley Cup in the previous 8 seasons and made it to three finals in a row, the Florida Panthers are reigning Stanley Cup champions and are aiming for their 3rd final in a row.
Essentially meaning that IF they did manage to win the Stanley Cup this season, the Sunshine state would have 4 winners in the previous 10 seasons, and 6 finalists in the same time span.
The Pick
It’s funny how sports betting works because we were originally looking at the under in this game, yet we have come away from our analysis of the lines and odds now wanting to back the over. So, how has this happened?
We believed the under 6.0 line would have been much better than the current -140. We expected it to be in around -120. On the flip side, this means we are getting worse odds on the under 5.5 line also, meaning there might be some value in the over 5.5 line, and we believe so.
Tampa Bay is vulnerable defensively, at least much more than they have been in previous seasons, and we expect plenty of penalties and power plays in this game. On top of this, we have the empty netter on our side. There is too much to suggest that the over 5.5 odds at -110 is not a good bet, and we would happily bet the over 5.5 goal line in this game down to -125 NHL betting odds with Bet365.
NHL Pick: Over 5.5 (-110) at Bet365
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
Monday, April 28, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Dallas Home Underdogs
The sportsbooks must be big on Colorado in this NHL matchup as we expected this to be a 50/50 game in terms of the pre-game odds, but to our surprise, the road team, Colorado, has been marked up as favorites.
Not only are the Avalanche favorites, they are somewhat heavily juiced favorites at -130. Okay, maybe some of this thinking has to be due to the fact that Colorado has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games at the American Airlines Center, as well as the fact that Dallas is 1-5 in their previous six home games.
That said, the Stars had gone 14-3 in their previous 17 home games prior to this cold streak on home ice. The Stars picked up their first win on home ice in the previous game between these two teams, and since we believe they have a 50/50 chance of winning this game, we are more than happy to be getting +125 for a Dallas Stars win and a 3-2 series lead.
The Pick
Admittedly, we are not writing off the Colorado Avalanche here, they have just as much of a chance of winning this game as the Stars do, but odds-wise wise this is a no-brainer that the Dallas Stars represent value on home ice.
Yes, one of the Stars’ best players, and certainly one of their prime point scorers, Jason Robertson, is missing, but we don’t believe he is such a loss that they should be as big of odds as we are currently getting.
We like these odds down to as low as +100 for the Dallas Stars to win on the moneyline.
NHL Pick: Stars ML (+125) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
