Easter Week brought a surprising shift in the political arena as Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) announced attorney Nicole Shanahan as his running mate for the 2024 US election.
But who exactly is Nicole Shanahan, and more importantly, how does her selection influence the political betting odds for November? Let’s delve into Shanahan’s background and the latest odds.
Its important to consider that Shanahan’s designation could expedite RFK Jr.’s efforts to secure ballot access across the nation, especially considering that nearly half of the states mandate a VP pick. Kennedy has expressed his intention to qualify for all 50 states and Washington DC.
Nicole Shanahan
At 38 years old, Nicole Shanahan, an attorney and tech entrepreneur, stands apart from the typical politician. The California native maintains a modest social media presence and lacks clear political affiliations, although she did back the Democratic Party in the last election.
Since then, Shanahan has attracted more attention, largely due to her personal life. In 2022, she went through a high-profile divorce from Google co-founder Sergey Brin, amid allegations of an affair with Elon Musk, a close associate of Brin’s at the time. Both Musk and Shanahan have refuted these claims.
Shanahan’s substantial wealth from the tech sector has garnered notice, leading many pundits to speculate that this was a key factor in RFK Jr.’s decision to select her over other well-known figures such as Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers or former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura.
Reports have emerged indicating that Shanahan, the California lawyer, was the primary supporter of Kennedy’s controversial Super Bowl ad, valued at $7 million.
Shanahan’s inclusion in Kennedy’s campaign has had minimal impact on his odds. At the beginning of March, his odds ranged from +2200 to +2500 so there hasn’t been any real movement.
However, it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on former President Donald Trump’s choice for running mate. In recent weeks, both Kristi Noem and Tim Scott have emerged as the favorites.
Remember that, since betting on politics is not legally allowed in the US, we referenced these odds from operators where it is regulated, such as Canada and the UK. The following are courtesy offSportsInteraction Canada.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 54.55% |
| Joe Biden | +130 | 43.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.96% |
Trump Is Happy
Oddly enough, there is consensus that Shanahan’s inclusion will favor Trump. However, his odds have not seen an uptick since the announcement. Conversely, incumbent President Joe Biden has experienced a slight improvement in his prospects.
Kennedy’s family has expressed concerns publicly, fearing that the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket could draw votes away from the Democrats, potentially benefiting the presumed Republican candidate. Trump appears to echo this sentiment.
“He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine. I love that he is running!” added Trump on his social media platform, Truth.
Meanwhile, Biden’s camp has yet to officially comment.
Recent polls indicate that Kennedy has garnered 10% support, trailing both Biden and Trump by approximately 30 points each.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
