The first of two College Football Playoffs is set for South Florida with a couple of familiar foes, at least historically. These teams met annually from 1981 to 1992, which ended when Penn State joined the Big Ten. They did and home and home in 2006-07 and Notre Dame holds the all-time series lead 19-9-1.
The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have met one other time in a bowl game and that was 1976 in the Gator Bowl with the Irish winning 20-9.
The stakes at the top-rated sportsbooks will be significantly higher with a chance to win the Orange Bowl and play for the national championship in this battle.
NCAAF Pick
- Notre Dame -1.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook (visit our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Thursday, January 09, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Penn State’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense
Since squeaking by Minnesota 26-25, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions offense elevated their output, averaging 37.5 points a game. Allar has become a better decision-maker, added a crispness to the offense and he’s trusted his legs to make plays when needed to make first downs or gain valuable yardage.
The Penn State pass offense revolves around TE Tyler Warren as a deep threat and a first-down machine. Receivers Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans both have five touchdowns. Allar can also hand the ball to a pair of 1,000+ yard rushers in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton who combined for 17 rushing TDs and six receiving TDs.
Notre Dame was #7 in total defense and can take away something from any offense. Georgia, despite its massive offensive line, only gained 62 yards on 29 carries against the Irish defense. DC Al Golden’s pass defense was #2 but they did have some problems with both USC and Georgia at times, yet, Penn State doesn’t appear as capable outside of Warren.
Penn State’s running game will set the tone or make them one-dimensional against Notre Dame.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense
If you break down coach Marcus Freeman’s offense based on unit talent, it doesn’t add up to 39 PPG. Riley Leonard is a good college football two-way threat at quarterback. He’s a competent thrower, nowhere elite, with his biggest attribute making key plays running or throwing.
What makes this offense churn is a brand new offensive line at the beginning of the season that was ordinary and got better every week and turned into a top-flight unit. The running combo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price brings speed, quickness and tackle-breaking to create chunk plays with regularity. This is the most prolific Notre Dame offense in terms of touchdowns in school history.
Penn State is more than capable of slowing the Irish. The Nittany Lions are #4 in total defense and #8 against the run. This will be a battle of wills at the line of scrimmage and it might come down to whether Leonard can throw to win, or does the Penn State defense curtail his success?
Coach vs. Coach
Nobody questions James Franklin’s ability to coach, he’s a proven winner. But big games facing top-notch opponents have been an issue in his career. Whether that’s entirely his fault is debatable, yet with a 3-19 SU record against Top 10 foes, that is inarguable.
Marcus Freeman continues to grow into the job in his third year. Freeman has some big-time wins and head-shaking losses, like at home this season to Northern Illinois, when his squad was out-played and out-coached. However, since then, Notre Dame has dismantled everyone in various ways and is the only team that is 6-0 against the Top 25.
Who Is the Right Side for the Fighting Irish vs. Nittany Lions?
The point spread suggests a tight game, which seems correct. Yet, a few elements stand out:
- Penn State can play very well but has lulls and that will sometimes linger. That explains why Franklin’s bunch is 8-7 ATS.
- Notre Dame is 12-2 ATS (some might have them with a tie or two) and has the ability to physically dominate on both sides of the ball.
Add in the special teams and having found a dependable kicker and the Irish fight their way to the title game.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -1.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
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