One of the most exciting matchups that will take place on Saturday is the one between Ohio State and Oregon.
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for this matchup, and they seem really off. Because I see this being a very high-scoring affair, you’ll want to play the “over” for your best bets.
NCAAF Pick
- Over 53 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium
Oregon’s Schedule So Far
Oregon’s results thus far tell us a lot about how many points we should expect Ohio State to score in this matchup.
It is true that Oregon’s most recent results create a strong impression of its defense. Let’s be transparent and spell out the best argument for Oregon backers: in their three most recent games, the Ducks held Oregon State to 14 points, UCLA to 13 points and Michigan State to 10 points.
Those three teams create a misleading impression of the Oregon defense’s abilities because they lack star players. The Ducks played one team so far with star-level talent on its offense. This game, because of the star-level talent of Oregon’s opponent, is very telling: against Boise State, the Ducks allowed 34 points.
Oregon’s Run Defense
Oregon allowed 34 points to Boise State largely because its defense proved unable to limit Boise State’s star running back. Ashton Jeanty, for the Broncos, amassed 192 rushing yards on 7.7 YPC and three rushing touchdowns.
Jeanty’s performance impresses me for two reasons:
- Boise State lacked a competent quarterback who could command the defense’s respect. Oregon knew that it could focus on limiting Jeanty. Despite this, it failed to do so.
- The Ducks were on point mentally.
It is one thing if a defense has an off game because it commits mental mistakes or lacks discipline. These things are easily fixable and, when they are fixed, radically different results take shape. Instead, Jeanty broke tackles, burst past defenders, and otherwise exposed the physical deficiencies of Oregon’s front seven.
Why This Matters
Jeanty’s effort against Oregon matters because he helped propel Boise State to a 34-point output without the help of an effective pass attack. Knowing what Jeanty did to Oregon matters because Ohio State can do even more.
First of all, they can have more success on the ground.
Because the Buckeyes have not one but two star running backs, their rush offense ranks ninth, despite the fact that they have faced Iowa. Iowa had one of the highest-ranking run defenses before it faced Ohio State.
Against Iowa, the Buckeyes ran for 203 yards on 5.1 YPC. Quinshon Judkins amassed 78 rushing yards on six YPC, and TreVeyon Henderson ran for 61 yards on 5.5 YPC. Both of these running backs are projected to be drafted in the second round of the upcoming NFL Draft.
Ohio State Has Even More
Whereas Boise State scored 34 points while leaning on a quarterback who sometimes fails to complete half his passes, Ohio State has a much more effective quarterback.
Will Howard, for the Buckeyes, is completing over 70 percent of his passes this season. He is accurate, comfortable in his offense, and demonstrates chemistry with his super talented group of wide receivers whom he can trust to win their matchups.
The Buckeyes lean especially on two wide receivers, both of whom have over 400 yards so far: Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Both are capable of making big plays, but they are also reliable on a down-to-down basis. Among other things — including sharp route-running and strength — Smith has unique speed, as evident in how many mph he reaches when he starts running. Egbuka’s 40-yard dash time shows that he likewise has impressive speed, but he will also reliably make contested catches.
Ohio State’s wide receiver corps has even more impressive weapons, but we can already foresee how productive its top weapons will be. Oregon, on the other hand, misses its top cornerback from last year, who was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection and was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings.
Despite facing inferior wide receivers, Oregon is already giving up many big plays in the passing game. In its most recent game, against Michigan State, the Ducks gave up 12.7 yards per completion.
Oregon’s Offense
Since its sloppy season-opener when it accrued close to 500 yards but only 24 points against Idaho, Oregon’s powerful offense has exceeded 30 points in every game so far.
The Ducks’ offense has excellent balance:
- On the ground, it will rely on Jordan James, at running back, with his with his 6.3 YPC.
- Through the air, Dillon Gabriel is averaging close to 300 passing yards per game while completing over 75 percent of his passes and wracking up eleven passing touchdowns.
Does Iowa’s Offensive Struggle Concern Us?
It is true that Ohio State shut down Iowa’s offense.
However, Oregon is vastly different from Iowa because, while Iowa also has an excellent running back, it does not have an NFL-caliber quarterback, which Oregon has in the form of Gabriel, who returned this season in order to improve his NFL draft stock.
Moreover, Oregon’s offensive line is stronger than Iowa’s.
The Buckeyes have yet to face an offensive line of Oregon’s caliber. The Ducks have, along with other talented players and great depth, two tackles in Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius, who are projected to be selected in the first or second round of the next NFL Draft.
Oregon will also boast a significantly stronger group of wide receivers, which includes future NFL stud Tez Johnson, who amassed close to 1,200 receiving yards last season.
The Buckeyes have yet to face a competent pass attack, so the high-level quality of Oregon’s NFL-caliber quarterback and wide receivers will challenge them. Oregon’s balance on offense will keep Ohio State from keying in on either the Ducks’ rush attack or their pass attack. Low-profile opponents like Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall were always going to create a strong impression of Ohio State’s defense.
My point here is that Oregon’s offense is on another level, even more prolific and productive than the Michigan one that scored 30 on Ohio State at the end of last season.
Takeaway
- Oregon failed to hold a run-centered offense, in Boise State, to below 30 points.
- Ohio State can not only surpass Boise State’s rushing prowess, but it can also thrive through the air.
- The Ducks will use their balanced offense to keep pace, challenging Ohio State’s rather untested defense as it has yet to be challenged.
I expect Ohio State to reach the 40’s, as it will finally be pushed by its opponent’s offense. The Ducks will help this game go way “over” by, at the very least, approaching 30 points.
NCAAF Pick: Over 53 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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