The matchup of Week 10 features #4 Ohio State traveling to Pennsylvania to battle with #3 Penn State. For Ohio State, at least in theory, the stakes are higher. The Buckeyes already have one conference loss while few would argue Ohio State would still be among the eight-best in college football even with two losses. Yet, others with one loss would likely get another look before Ohio State in early December when the field is chosen for the 12-team tournament.
Penn State will again try to break into the hierarchy of the Big Ten after the Buckeyes and Michigan have mostly dominated the league along with Wisconsin for a decade or more. The Nittany Lions will enter this fray with concern, which we will shortly discuss.
Let’s dive right into our favorite pick for this game, with the best NCAAF odds courtesy of our top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 2, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium
Ohio State Attempts to Get Over the Hump
For Ohio State (6-1, 3-4 ATS) it is yet another attempt to reach the summit. Having played Oregon on even terms in Eugene three weeks ago, but unable to make that one late game defensive stand, leaving head coach Ryan Day was left yet again to explain how another big game slipped away. (0-4 SU run vs Top 5 foes)
Day’s squad has all the components. Offensively, Ohio State averages 40.3 points a game (#11) and is #9 in total offense at 471.9 yards a game. The Buckeyes offense is balanced, averaging almost five more runs than passes. Day’s crew averages 188 YPG rushing (#35) and 283 YPG passing (#22).
What Ohio State offers is the explosive element. They can look ordinary running the ball, then running backs Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson will explode for a 40-yard run.
The Buckeyes are Wide Receiver U in today’s world and QB Will Howard is the beneficiary, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt at a 74% completion percentage. Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are the main targets and big plays waiting to happen.
On defense, Ohio State concedes only 11.9 PPG (#4) and is #2 in total defense at 254 YPG allowed. However, the one top offense they faced all season in Oregon posted 495 yards and 33 points.
Penn State Less Impressive Than the Buckeyes, Yet Unbeaten
Coach James Franklin has a similar big game problem (0-10 SU run vs Top 5 foes) as his coaching counterpart in this battle, with somewhat less fanfare. Franklin had troubles with both Ohio State and Michigan. Being in the same division with those teams, only once, back in 2016, have the Nittany Lions won a Big Ten championship since the Big Ten finally added a title game (2011) to determine the winner.
Freed from those shackles because of expansion, Penn State knows if they win out they are playing for everything they want with this squad.
The Nittany Lions don’t have as many – To The House – athletes as Ohio State, but they are still highly effective. Penn State averages 34.5 PPG and is more focused on the run with 38 carries a game, good for 197 YPG (#29).
An underrated aspect of coach Franklin’s team is the passing offense. which is slightly better than the Buckeyes in yards per attempt (9.9 vs 9.6). The triggerman is Drew Allar (more on him soon) who quietly goes about his business, and there are six receivers that have double-digit receptions, with TE Tyler Warren leading with 47.
Like the offensive figures, Penn State’s defense is just below Ohio State, permitting 14.3 PPG (#9) and 267 yards on defense (#4). The Nittany Lions also had some problems with the top offense they encountered in USC, surrendering 30 points and 409 yards on the road.
Who Is the Right Side for the Buckeyes vs. Nittany Lions?
We put this off as long as we could. Last week Penn State QB Drew Allar was injured and did not return in the win over Wisconsin. He came out in the second half with a brace on his left knee, warmed up throwing, but never reentered the game.
Backup quarterback Beau Pribula took Allar’s place and played well given the circumstances. Pribula completed 11 of 13 passes for 98 yards and a crucial fourth-quarter touchdown. Pribula looked comfortable running the show. Nevertheless, he’s not Allar and Wisconsin is not Ohio State.
Most reports have this as a game-time decision that makes backing the Nittany Lions a tricky call. The current line appears to be a neutral position by the sportsbooks.
Here is what we do know, the more physical team at the line of scrimmage is your winner. Ohio State is not always thought to be that squad on either side of the ball and continues to work on the toughness aspect.
Penn State has more of a reputation for playing physical, yet, because they normally don’t have as many top talented players as those with bigger reputations, that’s where and why they have come up short.
For the sake of this article, we will assume Allar plays. The Nittany Lines defensive front is strong enough to give Ohio State’s O-Line issues and the Buckeyes front five is dealing with injuries that could further work against them.
In a game involving two AP-ranked teams, when the higher-ranked home team has been a single-digit favorite or underdog, they have gone 55-17 SU and 48-21-3 ATS (69.6%) the last seven years. That is Penn State.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115) at Bet365
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