Last week, Texas beat Arizona State and Ohio State beat Oregon. As a result, Texas and Ohio State will play in the semifinals.
The NCAAF odds boards have the Buckeyes favored by six and the total at over 50 points.
I find the total way too high, so you are going to want to play the “under.”
NCAAF Pick: Under 54 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review
Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Friday, January 10, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Ohio State’s Elite Defense
So far this postseason, the Buckeyes have held Tennessee to 17 points and Oregon to 21 points. Those point totals are even inflated because defenses regularly play passively and with less focus when their team has a tremendous lead, as Ohio State did in both games.
The high total posted by oddsmakers fails to respect how solid the Buckeyes are on defense. Against Oregon, they held Jordan James to 14 rushing yards on seven carries even though James, in the regular season, had amassed 1,267 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, and 5.4 YPC.
They also held quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a Heisman finalist in check, as they raced out to a 34-0 lead. Despite the greatness of their lead, they were literally one play away from shutting out the Ducks in the entire first half.
Ohio State’s performance last week against Oregon’s elite offense was not atypical. On the season, the Buckeyes rank number one in total defense by a clear margin. They are the only team to allow fewer than 250 yards per game.
More specifically, they are number one against the pass and number four against the run.
Realistic Scoring Total for Texas
Outside of their two games against Oregon in the regular season, Ohio State has not allowed more than 17 points. The Buckeyes even held Penn State to 13 points.
On the other side, Texas has struggled to put up points against the elite defenses that it has faced. In two games against Georgia, the Longhorns scored 15 and 16 (in regulation) points, respectively.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers is particularly limited. He makes bad mistakes, although he is hurt often by a play-caller who insists on having him throw deep balls. Ewers is terrible at throwing deep balls, which is partly why his interception total is as high as it is.
Running back Quintrevion Wisner, moreover, has struggled against top-ranked run defenses — even against Arizona State’s, for example. Without Wisner being effective, too much pressure is placed on Ewers, who among other things cannot rely on play-action passing because play-action passing, to be effective, requires the defense to respect the threat of a running attack.
Texas has not shown any improvement on offense since its recent loss to Georgia. It has not shown any reason to suggest that it can succeed on offense against Ohio State’s defense.
Texas’ Defense Is Solid, Too
For the “over” to hit, the Buckeyes will have to score over 30 points. It is ridiculous to expect them to do that.
The Longhorns have a great defensive line, one that features one of the best defensive tackles in All-SEC selection Alfred Collins. The Longhorns’ defense line is also well-stocked at the edges. They have, therefore, one of the top run defenses. Theirs allows all of 3.2 YPC.
Because their defensive line is so good, they can do what Ohio State’s toughest opponents have done and limit the Buckeyes’ rush attack without sacrificing its ability to defend the pass.
Against Nebraska and its highly-ranked run defense, for example, the Buckeyes scored all of 21 points because their rush attack struggled to reach even two YPC.
More recently, to give another example, the Buckeyes mustered all of ten points at home against Michigan. But the Longhorns also have an elite pass defense, one that ranks toward the top partly because it features All-American selection at cornerback Jahdae Barron.
Why Did Texas Allow So Many Points Last Week?
Arizona State’s high-scoring total last week might seem to promote optimism for Ohio State’s offense. But note that Texas held Arizona State with its elite running back to three points in the first half.
The Longhorns, as they also showed in their game against Clemson, lack a killer instinct. When their offense achieves a great lead, then that lead will vanish. In the regular season, they even failed to beat Vanderbilt by more than three points.
But we won’t see Texas’ lack of a killer instinct in play in this game because it is the underdog and it will struggle to score on offense.
Expect its defense, therefore, to be solid, as it was in its recent close game against Georgia because its defense will need to be solid in order to keep it competitive.
This will be a tight, low-scoring game that will be dominated by both defenses.
NCAAF Pick: Under 54 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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