Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for Saturday’s SEC contest between Oklahoma and Ole Miss. Given what I know about both teams, I was quite shocked when I saw the spread. Ole Miss is getting much too much respect.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Sooners.
NCAAF Pick
- Oklahoma +21 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oklahoma’s Last Game
Ole Miss might seem like the team to bet on if we merely consider the score of Oklahoma’s last game. The Sooners lost to South Carolina 35-9. Conversely, Ole Miss had beaten the Gamecocks 27-3.
You need to know, however, that at least broad applications of transitive property logic do not work in sports betting. The fact that Ole Miss pummeled South Carolina and South Carolina pummeled Oklahoma does not entail that Ole Miss will blow out Oklahoma.
Likewise, for example, it would be ridiculous to think that, because Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State, that Georgia State would beat Alabama. Every game has its own dynamics. Oklahoma’s most recent loss to the Gamecocks does not reflect its capabilities. The Sooners actually outgained South Carolina by 37 yards.
Room for Improvement
What happened was this: they committed avoidable turnovers.
They will learn from this experience by formulating a stronger game plan for Saturday’s game that allows them to do a better job of sustaining drives and avoiding turnovers.
Against the Gamecocks, they came out passing the ball and found themselves quickly down by two scores before they could get into their run game. I will contend that they will cover the spread on Saturday by focusing on their run game. This is the obvious solution for them — because their problems last week came from their focus on passing the ball.
We know that this solution will be an effective one for them in part because of what Kentucky was able to do to the Rebels.
Kentucky’s Meaningful Upset Win Over Ole Miss
When SEC play began, Ole Miss displayed its vulnerability as a strong favorite. Meanwhile, Kentucky was a 15.5-point road underdog against the Rebels. The Wildcats won by focusing on running the ball, controlling time of possession, and playing stout defense.
Even though they weren’t efficient, averaging all of two YPC, they ran the ball 47 times, which is 19 more times than they passed. By running the ball, they sustained drives, helping them to win the time of possession battle 39:43 to 20:17.
They wore down Ole Miss’ defense, kept their own defense well-rested, and further limited the Rebels’ scoring opportunities by keeping them off the field. An offense can’t score when it is sitting on the sidelines.
Oklahoma’s Last Win
Coming off this loss to South Carolina in which they began the game by employing a recognizably foolish pass-heavy strategy, the Sooners are going to do what Kentucky did, which is also what they did in their last win.
Whereas they passed more often than they ran in their game against South Carolina, they ran 17 more times against the team that they last beat — Auburn — than they passed.
Passing the ball is their weakness. However, they have mobile quarterbacks who are dangerous runners and demonstrably capable of gaining chunk plays on the ground, and they also have effective running backs. They really do not need to pass too much, which is why criticism of their quarterbacks’ passing abilities does not validly justify a play on Ole Miss.
In order to cover the spread by a comfortable margin, the Sooners will merely need to reach a double-digit scoring total.
Oklahoma’s Pass Rush
I mentioned that Oklahoma’s rush attack will keep it from having to rely on its pass attack. Despite being heavily favored, Ole Miss’ pass attack will likewise struggle, helping to ensure that the Rebels fail to reach 20 points. We are getting two teams that will struggle to pass the ball well, and yet one of them is heavily favored.
The Rebels will struggle to pass well because pass-blocking is a continual issue for them. They struggled to pass-block effectively in their loss against Kentucky. Their pass-blocking struggles also explain why, most recently, they failed to exceed 23 points in regulation against an LSU defense that ranks 38 spots behind Oklahoma’s.
Overall, the Rebels rank 86th in pass protection, as measured by the rate at which they prevent their quarterback from being sacked. Oklahoma’s defense will form their toughest test in this regard. The Sooners rank fifth in sack rate, four spots above the Kentucky team that upset Ole Miss.
The Sooners are led by a head coach in Brent Venables who, when he was at Clemson, was universally regarded as the nation’s top defensive coordinator. Venables has built a pass-rushing group that even gets the defensive backs involved.
Six different Sooners have multiple sacks. The leader is R Mason Thomas with six sacks.
Oklahoma’s Run Defense
Oklahoma will play Ole Miss evenly also because its run defense will prove to be stout.
Henry Parrish Jr., Ole Miss’ running back, has failed to be remotely as efficient in conference play as he was in non-conference play.
The Sooners rank 26th in run defense, two spots behind an LSU team that held the Rebels’ running back to three YPC.
Takeaway
Oklahoma’s defense is, in its level of quality, thus comparable to Kentucky and LSU defenses that helped their respective teams beat the Rebels by shutting down their offense. Overall, the Sooners can do key things that Kentucky and LSU did in their victories over the Rebels.
Ole Miss is being given too much respect by oddsmakers. Their big names on offense are attractive on paper but ineffective in reality because their offensive line is too weak. Oklahoma’s defense, spearheaded by its high-caliber pass rush and its stout run defense, will shut them down. On offense, they will use their strength, which is their rush attack, to wear down the Rebels’ defense, which will be disadvantaged by the inability of its offense to sustain drives.
This strikes me as being a very even game, so getting three touchdowns from oddsmakers feels like a gift, even though bettors who just look at the scores don’t recognize it.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma +21 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
