For Saturday night’s prime-time college football on ABC, it is #9 Ole Miss visiting #13 LSU, in the southern-most “Death Valley”. Both clubs have one loss and another could place them in peril of reaching the college football playoffs, especially Mississippi, since their defeat was in the SEC to Kentucky.
These clubs from the Deep South meet annually and the ramifications will be extremely important to both squads. This matchup features colorful head coaches skilled at working the media, most times in their favor, but occasionally saying something that gets them into hot water.
Grab the beverages and snacks, this promises to be fun at the top-rated sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick
- LSU +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium
Ole Miss is a Complete Team
Ole Miss is 5-1 SU and ATS and enters this battle as a 3.5-point favorite as of Thursday, which is up from -2. Coach Lane Kiffin’s offense is in the skilled hands of Jaxson Dart. The senior quarterback is on his way to his first 4,000 passing season as a collegiate and has tossed 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Kiffin’s offense this season is reducing part of the workload on Dart, having just 44 rush attempts halfway through the season, after posting 119 and 126 rushing attempts the previous two years. Part of this is to keep Dart healthier and the continued growth of the running offense without the QB going off on sojourns, ranked #24 in rushing at over 200 yards a game.
The senior triggerman in charge of the nation’s #2 total offense. Receiver Tre Harris is the top target with 52 catches and already over 500 yards. Though there are five pass-catchers with 10 or more receptions, there are those wondering why TE Caden Prieskorn isn’t being used more as a security blanket for Dart when things break down.
With all the defensive transfers and those through the portal, the Rebels are #12 in total defense, highlighted as the best run defense in the land at 63.7 yards a game and 1.9 yards a carry. This Ole Miss defense is #3 in sacks at 4.0 per game and #1 in tackles for loss at over 10.
LSU Defense Has To Step up and the Offense Has To Match Points
Since coach Brian Kelly arrived in Baton Rouge, there have not been many complaints about the offense. This year’s club is no different, totaling 35.2 points per game and ranked #16 in total offense. Though the running game is only averaging 130 YPG, the rush per carry is 4.9, with freshman Caden Durham becoming the more explosive option and working cohesively with the offensive line.
QB Garrett Nussmeier has played excellent football, hitting nearly 70% of pass attempts for 15 TDs (4 picks). It doesn’t hurt that Nussmeier has four different receivers with 20 or more catches, which makes it very difficult for opposing defenses to role zones to certain players or try to double-team someone.
One aspect Kelly has not mastered is creating a dominating defense at LSU (4-1, 1-4 ATS). This group is not as bad as last year’s which was #105 in total defense, permitting 29 PPG. In the grand scheme of things, the Tigers are much improved at #66 in total defense, permitting 21.4 PPG. However, that is hardly considered championship level.
Who Is the Right Side for the Rebels vs. Tigers?
Mississippi would appear to have edges, even if the LSU faithful are in full throat, particularly for conference night games.
Ole Miss has a better-balanced offense when it comes to running and passing. LSU is 15th in the SEC in rushing, which places more pressure on Nussmeier to complete passes. That’s not to say he won’t because this is handily the best collection of receivers the Ole Miss secondary has seen and likely will face in the regular season.
Nonetheless, the Rebels’ defense is exceptional in creating pressure on the opposing passer and generating negative plays. Nussmeier will need the running game to at least be a threat.
The Pick
The smart pick is to back the Rebels. Nevertheless, with the hook at -3.5, that would be a rough way to lose. Kiffin is 8-0 ATS as a road favorite, but only twice has that been by less than a touchdown. On the flip, Brian Kelly is 5-0 ATS in home games against good running teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards.
College football can be trendy, like having trends that matter for teams that play annually over a period of time. This battle finds the home team on a 10-2 SU run and on a run of 9-1 ATS. With that knowledge, expect a three-point outcome either way and take the digits.
NCAAF Pick: LSU +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
