After a dominating performance against the Dallas Cowboys, can the Green Bay Packers earn another massive upset against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs?
Picks Summary
- Packers +10 (-110)
- Over 50.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
The San Francisco 49ers finished with the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earned a bye week from the Wild Card Round.
Now they’ll take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs after the Packers earned a massive upset over the Cowboys on Sunday, 48-32.
Offensive Showcase
The Packers put on an offensive clinic against a Dallas team that ranked at the top in many defensive categories.
The 49ers are a defense that has ranked very highly in those same defensive categories. Therefore, it’ll be interesting to see how Green Bay does offensively against the 49ers on Sunday.
Love’s Stellar Performance
Against Dallas, Jordan Love threw for 272 yards and completed 16-of-21 passes. He also added three touchdowns and no interceptions and finished with a nearly perfect QBR of 157.2.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones has finally looked healthy over the last month and added 21 carries for 118 yards with three rushing touchdowns.
To be fair, the Packers’ defense didn’t struggle until the final six minutes of the game against the Cowboys. But Green Bay still allowed over 400 yards passing and probably made the game more interesting towards the end than it should’ve been — though this was during garbage time and the result was never in doubt.
Still, overall, the Packers dominated that game from the start and will now take on the 49ers in the next round of the playoffs.
49ers’ Recent Form
San Francisco has lost two of their last three games. But only one really counts. The loss to the Ravens on December 25 was poor, but the Week 18 loss to the Rams wasn’t that big of a deal since the Niners sat their starters for this NFC Divisional game.
When looking at the matchup, a few things stand out. The Packers have been an elite offense over the last couple of months. However, the 49ers have been an elite offense throughout the entire season.
They’ve been more consistent offensively. Brock Purdy has thrown 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and finished the regular season with more passing yards than Jordan Love. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey added 1,459 yards rushing with 14 touchdowns and had even more production receiving the football.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
San Francisco’s pass protection is truly the only area where the Niners weren’t great in this season offensively. But the playmaking around Purdy was special enough that it didn’t show too much per game.
On the other hand, the Packers were never consistent against the run. They’re way better against the pass and forced the Cowboys to throw the ball much more late in the game due to the massive deficit.
San Francisco loves to run the football and has the best running back in the NFL carrying the load. As long as the Niners commit to the run and put together a consistent offense, the Packers will struggle to get stops in the run game.
On the other hand, the Niners aren’t that great against the run, either. They’re much better against the pass as well. After watching Aaron Jones go to work over the last month, the Green Bay offense has really started to pick it up in the run game.
It’s unclear if A.J. Dillon will play. He’s questionable and another running back for the Packers, who would likely require some reps. But for now, Jones looks fantastic in the run game. The run block could struggle against the Niners slightly though.
The Pick
That said, the Niners at -10 is too much. Green Bay’s offense put together a masterclass and will be just as prepared against the Niners.
NFL Pick: Packers +10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
What About The Total?
The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will both have success running the football. When you can do that, the entire playbook opens up.
Green Bay and San Francisco have missed a solid amount of tackles this year. That’s ultimately one of the reasons why both run defenses have struggled. But the run game will keep both defenses off-balanced. Love and Purdy are both quarterbacks who have 30+ touchdowns in the air and no more than 11 interceptions this season.
Love has protected the ball very well over the last two months. Meanwhile, if you take away Purdy’s game against the Ravens, his stats would look so much better with under ten interceptions on the year.
If neither team makes mistakes and turns the ball over, the Over 50.5 should hit after all.
NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
