Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Sunday’s Wild Card game between the Packers and Eagles. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the “under.”
NFL Pick
- Under 46.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (visit our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia’s Improved Defense
On defense, Philadelphia is completely different from the team that gave up 29 points to Green Bay in Week 1 in Brazil’s skating rink with its absurdly slippery field that created impossible conditions for the players.
In the early part of the season, the Eagles also gave up 33 points to Tampa Bay. Later on, though, they held Cincinnati to 17 points and Baltimore to 19 points.
In so doing, they proved their ability to limit the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is arguably the best passer. His lowest passer rating in a game came when he played the Eagles.
Jordan Love and Christian Watson’s Struggles
Philadelphia will get a relatively soft test in the form of Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love. Compared to last year, Love is less efficient, less productive and more prone to throwing interceptions.
Love’s decline this year is not a consequence of wide receiver Christian Watson’s injury woes, because Watson played in six more games this season than he did last season. However, Love is dependent on Watson to do well.
Love enters Sunday’s game having failed to reach 200 passing yards in any of his last three games. Watson failed to muster a single receiving yard in any of those games. Evidently, Love depends on Watson because the latter is a significant part of Green Bay’s offense.
Watson, though, was carted off the field in last week’s game. His knee injury makes it doubtful that he will be fit to play on Sunday. I do assume that Love, who developed numbness in his right throwing hand after sustaining a right elbow injury last week, will be fine, as will Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is trying to recover from a concussion and hasn’t played since December 22.
Without Watson, though, Love will fail to sniff 200 passing yards.
Outlook for Philadelphia’s Defense
The Eagles have always had the talent on defense. They are well-stocked with excellent free agent and draft acquisitions on the defensive line, in their linebacking corps and in their secondary.
With a new defensive coordinator this year, they simply needed time to gel.
Vic Fangio has a great reputation for his play-calling. He does bring a complex scheme that requires defensive backs to be well-coordinated — they need to communicate well and to be on the same page.
With guys like All-Pro selection Darius Slay at cornerback, impressively developing rookies, and a strongly progressing Reed Blankenship, Philadelphia’s secondary has a superb ceiling, just like the front seven does with its collection of run-stoppers and pass-rushers.
Now they rank tenth against the run and first against the pass. They have the number one-ranked overall defense and the best-scoring defense. I just don’t see where, for Green Bay’s offense, the yards or points will come from.
Green Bay Against Mobile Quarterbacks
Green Bay’s defense has been at its best when it faced mobile quarterbacks. It thrives especially at limiting the rushing capacity of quarterbacks who like to run. Against Anthony Richardson-led Indianapolis and Kyler Murray-led Arizona, the Packers allowed 10 and 13 points, respectively.
Hurts’ big games have come against low-ranking pass defenses, like Cincinnati’s and Pittsburgh’s. Green Bay will provide a tough test for him with its deep secondary, which includes cornerbacks Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine, both yielding a passer rating below 80 when targeted.
Green Bay’s Run Defense
The Packers’ run defense is solid when Quay Walker is healthy — whereas the Texans thrived on the ground against Green Bay after Walker sustained an injury.
Green Bay is a well-tested group that faced Detroit’s sixth-ranked rush attack twice and Arizona’s seventh-ranked ground game once. In those three games, Green Bay allowed:
- 89 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC to Arizona.
- 124 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC to Detroit.
- 111 rushing yards on 3.3 YPC in the rematch against the Lions.
Walker achieved double-digit tackle totals in those games, as he rose to the challenge posed by the opposing offense. Green Bay is clearly well-equipped to contain good running backs and offensive lines.
Takeaway
Green Bay’s offense suffers a negative outlook without Watson but is especially slated to struggle against Philadelphia’s greatly improved defense, which is stacked at all three levels and which has gelled.
The Packers will keep this a low-scoring game by containing Philadelphia’s quarterback-running back rushing duo and by relying on their deep secondary to limit the Eagles’ passing game.
NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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