We’ve got one more weekend of regular season baseball on the schedule. While there are still a few meaningful games, tread lightly to close the regular season. That said, let’s see what our AI Model wants us to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick
- Diamondbacks ML (-120) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, September 27, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
The AI Model suggests the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are still looking for an NL Wild Card slot, will add a 4.3-3.9 win against the Padres at home. With Arizona at -120, it’s best to take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline tonight.
Can Martin Perez Sustain Success?
The veteran lefty, Martin Perez, will take the bump for the Padres tonight. He’s held his last 68 righties to a .065 ISO and wOBA of .242 but has allowed a .186 ISO and wOBA of .354 to 448 righties this season.
With a matchup against Arizona, it’s unlikely Perez will continue his dominance. Arizona’s projected lineup has hit a .236 ISO and wOBA of .428 with only 16.7% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month.
With the playoffs on the line, the Diamondbacks should be prepared.
Merrill Kelly Has Limited Damage
The Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly. While the right-hander has allowed a higher ISO this season, he’s still limited opponents to a .298 wOBA over the last month. Kelly doesn’t walk many batters and has earned nearly 44% of ground balls in the previous 30 days.
This is why he’s limiting damage despite giving up more power. The power comes when nobody is on base. That’s an advantage going up against the Padres.
The Pick
Take the Diamondbacks at -120 per our AI Model.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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