We’re headed to Game 5 of the NLDS between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Whoever wins tonight’s game will move on into the NLCS and have home-field advantage against the New York Mets in the following series.
However, the loser will be sent home to the couches for the rest of the postseason.
Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, I went to the AI Model to find the best bets for tonight’s game. Below, I wrote about two of the best bets the AI Model loves for tonight’s epic showdown and divisional rivalry matchup.
Picks Summary
- Dodgers ML (-140)Â
- Under 8.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, October 11, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model believes the Dodgers will escape with a 4.9-3.5 victory. With Los Angeles sitting at -140 on the moneyline, it’s clear that the Dodgers have the value tonight. Meanwhile, the total adds up to 8.4. With the matchup currently holding an 8.5 total, the Under has a slight value.
Yu Darvish Could Struggle Tonight
The San Diego Padres will throw Yu Darvish tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has only struck out 20.4% of batters over the last month. He has limited his last 93 batters to a .110 ISO and wOBA of .221. However, he’s still induced just 40% of ground balls and has allowed 27.7% of fly balls over the last month. In addition, he’s allowed 44.1% of hard contact to righties in the last 30 days and has only added 10% of swinging strikes against righties in that time.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ projected lineup has still hit a .195 ISO and wOBA of .366 against righties over the last month. More importantly, the Dodgers have struck out just 16.8% of the time against righties during the previous 30 days.
Los Angeles is patient at the plate. The Dodgers have walked 10.4% of the time. They’re swinging at strikes but laying off balls. That’s what makes the Dodgers so great. They also have six batters who have hit an ISO of at least .207 against righties in the last 30 days and six batters with at least a .347 wOBA against righties. They’ll compete against Darvish and enjoy feasting on San Diego’s bullpen.
Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto Be Better?
The Dodgers spent a lot of money to bring in Yoshinobu Yamamoto for moments like tonight. In a Game 5 winner-take-all game, Yamamoto is expected to rise to the challenge.
The righty has struggled a bit, giving up a .419 ISO and wOBA of .513 to his last righties. But throughout the season, he’s added 28.1% of strikeouts against righties and has only walked righties 3.6% of the time. He’ll look to get back to those types of numbers in tonight’s meeting against the Padres.
That said, San Diego also doesn’t strike out much against righties. The team has struck out only 17.8% of the time against righties in the last month. The difference is the Padres are more aggressive and don’t work counts to earn walks.
San Diego’s projected lineup has worked out only 6.2% of walks over the last month. Therefore, when the Padres get a big swing against Yamamoto, there might not be anyone on base.
The Pick
Although Darvish and Yamamoto are on the mound tonight, don’t expect them to go super deep in this game unless they’re perfect. Managers typically over-manage and take pitchers out when they don’t need to. After all, starters are better than relievers because every reliever would be a starter if they were good enough. Don’t forget that.
So, while we should get quality work from Darvish and Yamamoto, I’ll trust the Dodgers’ bullpen to close out the game. When all hands were on deck in Game 4, down 2-1 in the series, the Dodgers went with a bullpen game and won 8-0.
While the Dodgers used up more of the bullpen, with yesterday off, I’m not worried about how Los Angeles will be in tonight’s game. Let’s back the Dodgers and the Under 8.5. You can thank the AI Model when these plays hit to begin the weekend!
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-140) at Bet365
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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