While no team will be sent home tonight, there are some massive games on the MLB playoffs slate. The Mets-Phillies series and Padres-Dodgers series are both tied at one in a best-of-five series. The winner of both of tonight’s games will have the advantage, needing one win in the next two games.
I asked the AI Model for its best bets for both games. Here’s what it gave us to consider at top-rated sportsbooks.
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick
- Phillies ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, October 08, 2024 – 05:08 PM ET at Citi Field
The AI Model believes the Phillies will add a 3.9-3 win over the Mets on the road tonight. The Phillies are only -115. Per our AI Model, there’s clearly value in the Phillies in tonight’s showdown.
Aaron Nola’s Luck Should Turn
The Phillies will roll with Aaron Nola for Game 3 of the NLDS. Nola has struck out more than 31% of batters over the last 30 days and has walked only 5.2%. He’s also induced nearly 52% of ground balls and has added 27.8% of whiffs with 12.7% of swinging strikes.
Yet, in the last month, he’s still allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .345. That shouldn’t be nearly as high with the numbers he’s been picking up. Additionally, the Mets’ projected lineup has hit a .146 ISO and wOBA of .297 against righties over the last 30 days. That’s not going to get the job done, either.
The Phillies Have Just Enough Power
The Phillies won’t dominate Sean Manaea of the Mets tonight. After all, with their projected lineup, the team has only hit a .141 ISO and wOBA of .295 against lefties over the last 30 days.
However, the Phillies have only struck out 18.2% of the time against lefties. They’ll be up at the plate looking to pounce early in counts against Manaea. If the Phillies can take advantage of just one or two mistakes, that should be enough to help the Phillies earn a win tonight.
The Pick
Philadelphia will strike out fewer and put the ball in play more, which should result in a win on the road.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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