There are four games on the MLB playoffs slate today! This could ultimately be the final time we’ll have an MLB slate of four or more games until next year’s MLB season. Let’s enjoy it at the top-rated sportsbooks while we can! I’ve added a best bet using the AI Model for tonight’s action. Let’s get right to it!
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick
- Over 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, October 09, 2024 – 05:08 PM ET at Citi Field
The AI Model believes the Phillies and Mets will combine for 7.8 runs tonight. However, Caesars Sportsbook currently has a total of 7.5. Therefore, the Over has some slight value in this playoff matchup. That’s the direction we’ll go.
A Mets Explosion Is Coming
The Mets will battle Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Suarez is a left-handed pitcher who has allowed a .263 ISO and wOBA of .466 to his last 68 righties. He has also given up 45.8% of hard contact and has allowed 33.3% of line drives to righties over the last month.
This is good news for batters like Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, Jose Iglesias and Francisco Alvarez, who have all shown off power against lefties over the last 30 days. The Mets also have just two batters who have struck out against lefties at a high rate over the last month. They’ll put the ball in play and hit some bullets.
Philadelphia Needs To Score With Season On The Line
The Phillies don’t have a spectacular matchup going up against Jose Quintana. However, against lefties, the team is at least aggressive and likes to put the ball in play.
After all, the Phillies have struck out just 18.4% of the time against lefties over the last month and have walked only 3.1% of the time. They won’t let the count get super high against Quintana and will swing at early pitches to try to land a pitch to hit.
The Phillies have some power in the lineup. With just one or two swings, the Phillies can easily put some runs on the board.
The Pick
Consider the Over for today’s Mets-Phillies NLDS Game 4.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
