Purdue and Houston meet at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Boilermakers could benefit from a home-like atmosphere with West Lafayette just an hour away.
However, beyond crowd support, the matchup tilts in favor of Houston, which boasts an elite defense and a deep, physical backcourt capable of disrupting Purdue’s offensive rhythm. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 133.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Houston Cougars
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 10:09 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
The Story So Far
Purdue made light work of McNeese in the second round, rolling to a 76-62 victory on Sunday behind a dominant performance from Trey Kaufman-Renn. The forward stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, 15 rebounds, and three assists, while Fletcher Loyer added 15 points and five assists.
Braden Smith was a steady presence as well, finishing with 10 points, five assists, and four rebounds in a well-rounded effort.
Houston had a much tougher battle, surviving an 81-76 thriller on Sunday against a Gonzaga team that looked vastly under-seeded.
L.J. Cryer was unstoppable, pouring in 30 points to lead the way. J’Wan Roberts contributed a strong two-way performance with 18 points, eight rebounds, and five assists, while Emanuel Sharp chipped in 12 points to help the Cougars advance.
Keys to the Game
Smith has been vital for Purdue, orchestrating the offense with his passing and scoring ability. But he’ll be dealing with a relentless Houston backcourt that thrives on making opposing guards uncomfortable. The Cougars have multiple defenders to throw at him, ensuring that every possession will be a grind. If they can cut off his passing lanes and force him into tough shots, Purdue could struggle to generate efficient offense.
Kaufman-Renn was a force in Purdue’s last game, but Houston presents a different challenge. The Cougars have a rotation of long, athletic wings who can disrupt his rhythm, making it difficult for him to operate in the paint. If Houston takes him out of the game, Purdue’s offense could stagnate, putting even more pressure on Smith and Loyer to create from the perimeter.
Cryer torched Gonzaga for 30 points, and he’ll be the focal point of Houston’s attack once again. Purdue will have to find a way to slow him down, but Houston’s depth in the backcourt presents a serious challenge. With Cryer, Sharp, and other talented guards attacking the basket, Houston has the firepower to break down Purdue’s defense and control the game.
Both teams prefer to play a slow, methodical style—Houston ranks 360th in adjusted tempo, while Purdue is 298th—which means every possession carries extra weight. Purdue can’t afford to get careless with the ball against Houston’s pressure defense, as turnovers could lead to easy transition buckets for the Cougars. At the same time, Houston must avoid the scoring droughts that plagued them in the second half against Gonzaga.
NCAA Tournament Pick
This game is shaping up to be a physical, defensive battle. Purdue will try to dictate the pace with its half-court offense, but Houston’s pressure and athleticism should make things difficult. If the Boilermakers struggle to create clean looks, the Cougars’ relentless defense and backcourt depth will eventually wear them down in a high-scoring battle.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 133.5 (-110) at Bet365
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