The Las Vegas Raiders will play the Kansas City Chiefs this Friday at 3:00 PM ET. It’s the annual game after Thanksgiving Day. Ultimately, most people are off work and have a four-day weekend, so the NFL has decided to have one game on Fridays.
Unfortunately, this game doesn’t look like it’ll be a good one. The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 and will have a home game against a divisional rival who is 2-9 on the season.
To make matters worse, Gardner Minshew is likely done with a collarbone injury for the season. Aidan O’Connell is expected to be ready to play in this game. However, if he isn’t, the Raiders would have Desmond Ridder available.
Now that Minshew is likely done for the year let’s see what the AI Model thinks about this game and use the best NFL odds from the top sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -13 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Friday, November 29, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Lots of Points Allowed
The Las Vegas Raiders are on a seven-game losing streak. They’re 1-5 on the road and 0-4 in the division.
They’ve also added a -108-point differential and have scored just 18.70 points per game this season.
Meanwhile, the defense has allowed 28.50 points per game, which has gradually increased over the last few weeks.
To open November, the Raiders allowed 41 points to the Bengals. In the next game, they allowed 34 points to Miami. Most recently, they allowed 29 points to the Broncos.
The Raiders could have been better as a secondary. They’ve allowed just 202.70 yards per game in the air, but that’s because most teams are running the clock out by the second half against this team.
Meanwhile, the missed tackles have piled up religiously this season. The pass rush is somewhat effective, and the Raiders aren’t awful against the run. They’re also not being helped out much, thanks to an inept offense that already traded away Davante Adams.
Are the Chiefs Still Elite?
The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 on the season. While they deserve the record, the Chiefs have played in many tight games that went their way late.
That’s the beauty of having Patrick Mahomes.
If you look at Kansas City’s last five games, for example, the Chiefs are 4-1, with every win being a one-score victory. The one loss came against the Bills when the Chiefs lost by nine.
Kansas City isn’t elite analytically. The secondary has been spotty this season, and they’ve also missed a solid number of tackles.
Soon, they’ll have Isiah Pacheco back, too. It could be as soon as this week. He’ll potentially help open up the passing game more.
After all, Mahomes has had just one game with 300+ passing yards. While that’s unlike him, Mahomes has still completed nearly 70% of passes this season and has had to adjust on the fly, with many receivers either injured or newly acquired.
Kansas City has still scored 24 points per game behind Mahomes. This team still has lots of creativity, and Mahomes is clutch in big moments.
But he can’t just be clutch against the Raiders if the Chiefs want to cover the spread. It’s a 13-point spread, and the Chiefs keep playing in tight one-score games.
However, it’s apparent just how bad the Raiders are. They won’t have a veteran starter at quarterback and will have to ride it out with O’Connell or Ridder. Neither has had any success in the NFL since joining the league.
NFL Computer Pick
Most of the time, divisional games and Chiefs games are tight. But Friday will be an exception, per our AI Model.
The Chiefs should get some reinforcement, while the Raiders will be looking for the No. 1 overall pick to bring in Shedeur Sanders as their new franchise quarterback.
Maybe Sanders could bring the Raiders what Mahomes has for the Chiefs. But the Raiders have to get there first. With Minshew out, the tank should be ready to go. Take the Chiefs at -13.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -13 (-110) at Bet365
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