Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s game between the Ravens and Buccaneers.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Buccaneers.
NFL Pick
- Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, October 21, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay’s Offense
It is hard not to like a home underdog that scores 29.7 points per game. The Bucs rank third in scoring offense.
Their offense had one really negative showing, which came when they faced Denver and its fourth-ranked defense. They also struggled with Detroit. They missed an important tackle, and Detroit’s elite pass rusher amassed 4.5 sacks. Under a lot of pressure, quarterback Baker Mayfield could only help his team to score 20 points.
Outside of those two tough games, Tampa Bay has scored:
- 37 against Washington
- 33 against Philadelphia
- 30 against Atlanta
- 51 against New Orleans
Baltimore’s Ability to Apply Pressure
The Ravens rank 18th, just behind New Orleans, in pressure percentage. Their diminished ability to apply pressure helps explain why their defense is so much worse overall this year.
Baltimore’s pass-rushing personnel declined in the offseason. Jadeveon Clowney, who led Baltimore’s linebackers with 9.5 sacks last season, departed without being replaced. The team also lost its highly intelligent defensive coordinator, who landed a head coaching gig in Seattle.
Tampa Bay anyhow has its tackle healthy, the one whose absence against Detroit was significant. And while its starting center might miss Sunday’s game, his backup is quite competent, as his performance last week against the Saints shows.
Baltimore’s Pass Defense
Baltimore’s pass defense will struggle not only because it lacks the capacity to apply pressure in the way that Detroit and Denver did. The Ravens rank 31st in pass defense also because they are vulnerable in the secondary.
High-level wide receivers, when they are supported by at least one other good wide receiver who keeps the defense from locking in on the high-level wide receiver, are demolishing Baltimore’s defense. When the Ravens gave up 27 points to the Chiefs and 26 to the lowly Raiders, Rashee Rice for Kansas City and Davante Adams for the Raiders both exceeded 100 receiving yards.
Baltimore gave up 25 points to a Dallas team who, with Brandin Cooks struggling, lacked a competent number two receiver. The Ravens then locked down a Buffalo team that lacked quality wide receivers, which is why the Bills just traded for Amari Cooper. But then, they faced Cincinnati, whose elite wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase amassed 193 receiving yards, helping his team score 38 points.
Most recently, Baltimore conceded 23 points to a Washington team that has a pretty good number one wide receiver and lacks support for him. The takeaway is that, in order to predict how many points an offense will score on Baltimore, we need to look at that offense’s wide receiver crew.
Tampa Bay’s Pass Attack
Tampa Bay certainly has a top-level wide receiver and support for him. Chris Godwin ranks number three in receiving yards. He ranks directly behind Chase in the category. Defenses can’t lock in on Godwin because Mike Evans is a good wide receiver. He ranks 28th in receiving yards, eight spots behind Washington’s top pass-catcher.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is having by far the best season in his career because he is comfortable in this offense. Tampa Bay’s new offensive coordinator lets him make more decisions, giving him a chance to make use of his football IQ. He ranks second in passer rating as well.
Given the above analysis, it makes sense to expect Mayfield to help his team score around 30 points on Baltimore’s defense.
Tampa Bay’s Defense Against Mobile Quarterbacks
On defense, the Bucs are reliable when they face mobile quarterbacks. Last year, they locked down Chicago quarterback Justin Fields and caused Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to struggle significantly.
They did allow Buffalo’s Josh Allen to thrive. The Bills scored 24 points, although they were supported by a strong rush attack that benefited from the injury-induced absence of Tampa Bay’s key run-stuffer, nose tackle Vita Vea.
Moreover, that Bills game took place on Thursday. A short week has, in recent history, disadvantaged Tampa Bay’s defense by giving its coaching staff less time to prepare, as when its defense looked completely unprepared against Atlanta two weeks ago.
The Bucs, this year, continue to limit mobile quarterbacks, and they will do so again especially because, since this game takes place on Monday, they get extra time to prepare. Let’s take these games as an example:
- They held Washington’s high-powered offense to 20 points, with the Commanders scoring their final touchdown in garbage time of what was a blowout win for Tampa Bay.
- The Bucs did give up 26 points to Bo Nix-led Denver, but Denver scored seven of its points off a nine-yard touchdown drive and benefited from Vea’s absence.
- Moreover, Tampa Bay shut down Jalen Hurts, holding his Eagles to 16 points.
- Most recently, the Bucs limited New Orleans with its mobile quarterback to 20 offensive points in what was a blowout win for them.
Tampa Bay’s Run Defense
The strength of Tampa Bay’s defense is its run defense. As such, the Buccaneers match up well against a run-centered offense like Baltimore’s, which owns the NFL’s highest rush-play percentage.
Vea is healthy. When he missed the Denver game, the Broncos amassed 4.9 YPC. With Vea, Tampa Bay is especially equipped to limit the more physical sort of running back, as when it held Detroit’s David Montgomery to 3.2 YPC despite the extent to which it was worn down by its offense’s lack of time of possession.
Montgomery’s teammate Jahmyr Gibbs did look dangerous late in the game, but Tampa Bay’s offensive outlook on Monday justifies the belief that, because its offense will sustain drives more easily, it will keep its defense well-rested.
Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley is another excellent running back who was held in check except for one big run that he had. Because Tampa Bay will score so many points, though, it won’t be a problem for its defense to allow a few big runs. All we need to know is that the Bucs have a good run defense that, especially against the more physical sort of running back — and Baltimore’s starting running back Derrick Henry is a prototypical bruiser — should be expected to regularly limit the efficiency of opposing running backs on a down-to-down basis.
Takeaway
Dating to last year, Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU when it scores 30 or more points. Its two losses came in overtime and in Houston where it lost by two.
I like Tampa Bay’s defense against mobile quarterbacks. Especially with Vea healthy, the Bucs match up well defensively against Baltimore’s run-centered offense. But most of all, the Bucs are a great home dog because of their offensive prowess, specifically their pass attack, which is built to exploit Baltimore’s tremendous defensive vulnerabilities.
I am seeing a 31-20 Bucs win here.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) at Bet365
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