Saint Mary’s against Alabama in the second round of the NCAA Tournament is a dream clash of contrasts. We have Saint Mary’s slow-burn, precise approach up against Alabama’s fast, chaotic pace.
Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 148.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sunday, March 23, 2025 – 06:10 PM EDT at Rocket Arena
The Story So Far
Each team arrived here by way of very different first-round experiences. Alabama had to survive a shootout with Robert Morris, eventually pulling away for a 90-81 win. Mark Sears was the catalyst with 22 points, 10 assists, and five rebounds, while Mouhamed Dioubate came off the bench and made a massive impact with 18 points and 10 boards. Clifford Omoruyi added 17 points, chipping in four rebounds and three steals along the way.
Saint Mary’s had an entirely different battle. The Gaels clawed their way back late and gutted out a 59-56 win against Vanderbilt, slowing the game to a crawl and forcing the Commodores into their world.
Jordan Ross was steady with 15 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Augustas Marciulionis added 14 points and eight rebounds, and the frontcourt combo of Luke Barrett and Mitchell Saxen combined for 24 points and 21 rebounds in a bruising performance on the glass.
Saint Mary’s doesn’t speed up or slow down—they simply dictate. That’s what makes them so hard to knock off rhythm. They don’t chase fast breaks unless the path is wide open. They don’t waste possessions with low-percentage shots. And most importantly, they clean the glass like a team possessed.
They’re the top team in the nation when it comes to rebounding margin, and they don’t let opponents get comfortable. Even explosive teams like Gonzaga struggled to crack their code—Saint Mary’s held the Zags to just 58 points twice and 67 in a third meeting. Since mid-November, only two teams have managed to score more than 70 points against them, the last being Nebraska in a loss.
They are methodical without being passive. They force you to play in the half-court and take away rhythm. When Saint Mary’s is in control, the tempo drops, the possessions stretch, and the scoreboard crawls.
Alabama flips that model entirely. Their strength lies in making games chaotic. They don’t just rebound well—they dominate the volume stats. The Tide lead the country in both total rebounds and defensive boards. The moment they grab a miss, they’re off to the races, sprinting into transition before defenses can get set.
That kind of speed forces opponents to abandon game plans. Even a team as structured as Saint Mary’s may be pulled into the current if Alabama finds an early rhythm. Mark Sears, coming off a 22-point, 10-assist effort, thrives in the open floor. Add Dioubate’s 18 and 10 off the bench and Omoruyi’s 17 points with three steals, and Alabama has plenty of ways to pile up points quickly.
But there’s a ceiling to Alabama’s approach.
They’re just 1-3 this season when they’ve failed to hit the 80-point mark. The lone win? A squeaker over McNeese. And no one—literally no one—has reached 80 against Saint Mary’s all year. That includes three matchups with Gonzaga, and high-powered offenses like Utah State and Akron.
Alabama doesn’t just need pace. They need points. And Saint Mary’s is the best in the country at preventing both.
Keys to the Game
Saint Mary’s leads the country in rebounding margin for a reason—they swarm the boards with structure and urgency.
In their last game alone, Barrett and Saxen combined for 21 rebounds. But Alabama is no slouch on the glass either. They’re No. 1 in total and defensive rebounds nationally, and use that edge to ignite their transition game. This game may pivot on who wins the rebound-and-outlet exchange. If Saint Mary’s is able to stifle Alabama’s breakouts by controlling the glass and forcing walk-it-up possessions, the Gaels will grind them down.
Alabama posted 90 in their opening round, exactly the pace they love. But they’re not the same team when forced into low-scoring contests. Saint Mary’s shrinks games with suffocating defensive execution, cutting off driving lanes and forcing late-clock decisions. Gonzaga knows that all too well. If Saint Mary’s forces Alabama into the half-court, the Tide may find their scoring options limited—and that 80-point target likely out of reach.
Sears had a standout opener, but his real test begins now. Saint Mary’s doesn’t overextend on defense. They rotate smoothly, defend without fouling, and make you earn every inch. Without transition chances, Sears will be challenged to find seams in a half-court setting that doesn’t often give up easy buckets. How he handles that pressure could determine whether Alabama floats or flails.
Alabama got a massive boost from Dioubate’s double-double in round one, and Omoruyi added key versatility. But Saint Mary’s counters with steady contributions across the board—Ross, Marciulionis, Barrett, and Saxen all play significant two-way roles.
The question is whether Alabama’s supporting cast can hold up in a half-court game if Grant Nelson—who played in the opener but may not be fully healthy—is limited again. If this game turns into a wrestling match in the paint and a grind on every possession, Saint Mary’s depth and balance become a real asset.
NCAA Basketball Pick
This matchup will be decided by who bends first. If Alabama starts fast, knocks down perimeter shots, and hits Saint Mary’s before the defense is set, they can shift the rhythm in their favor and threaten to run away with it. But if the Gaels control the boards, manage the shot clock, and make Alabama work deep into possessions, the Tide could get pulled into deep waters.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t allowed a single team to reach 80 all season, and Alabama’s record drops significantly when they don’t reach that number. The tempo will likely tilt toward the Gaels’ preference, and if it does, they have the tools to frustrate the Tide.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 148.5 (-110) at Bet365
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