College football is back with two FBS matchups among four games total for Week 0. One of those two contests is a night game and oddsmakers have this as a genuine mismatch with Southern Methodist traveling to Reno to take on the University of Nevada.
The Mustangs are approaching a four-touchdown favorite (-25) which could leave the backdoor wide open in the fourth quarter for an underdog cover or a total going over.
NCAAF Pick: SMU -25 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Mackay Stadium
Early Forecast on the Mustangs
As crazy as it sounds, SMU is now an ACC member. At least they won’t have to make cross-country flights like Stanford and California will to play road conference games.
The Mustangs are physically skilled enough to compete in the ACC with excellent first-line talent on offense and a defense that held opponents to 17.9 points a game after winning the American Conference last season.
The offense will feature QB Preston Stone, who’s returning from a broken leg and behind what is thought to be a Top 20 offensive line that is athletic and powerful to continue to allow SMU to be a Top 20 offense in yardage and Top 10 in scoring.
Stone will again throw to top pass catcher Jake Bailey and TE RJ Maryland, who has a knack for being open in the red zone.
Of the 11 transfers that arrived in Dallas, seven came on defense. Head coach Rhett Lashlee understood in changing conferences, his squad would need more size and speed and that is the intent, especially when ACC play commences.
Where issues could occur is when injuries start happening and not have the depth to overcome them in a Big 4 conference.
Early Forecast on the Wolf Pack
New Mexico is the only club picked to finish lower in the Mountain West than Nevada. The reason is the Wolf Pack changed coaches after a pair of 2-10 campaigns. Enter Jeff Choate, who will attempt to duplicate the success beloved head coach Chris Ault had in two stints in Reno.
Choate is trying to create excitement and said he wants his team to be the most improved squad in the country record-wise. When surveying the situation, Choate would have to be a miracle worker for that to happen.
The Wolf Pack offense last season was T-124 in scoring nationally and #124 in total offense. Nevada has installed a new offense, which normally takes time to implement, to get everyone on the same page. Look for this to be a work in progress well into October.
Defensively, there is some talent on the edges to rush the passer. The inside linebacker spots are probably the strength of the defense, but the secondary is mostly unproven outside of KK Meier at one cornerback slot.
Nevada’s stop troops were #123 in total defense and conceded more than 33 PPG last season. This too is part of a complete rebuild.
Who Is the Right Side for SMU vs Nevada?
As the NCAAF betting odds suggest, this has the makings of turning ugly early or late. That will largely depend upon the mood of SMU.
If the Mustangs don’t come to play against an excited Nevada squad, the home team can hang around for a couple of quarters before SMU’s superior speed and offensive talent in particular take over.
However, if coach Lashlee convinces his squad they need to prepare for the ACC and focus on precision from the first snap, with only Christian Houston (say who?) on tap next week, Stone and company could generate an avalanche of big plays that leads to a big working margin by halftime.
As long as the point spread remains south of four touchdowns, saddle up on the Mustangs.
NCAAF Pick: SMU -25 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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