The Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Baltimore Ravens for the third time this year on Saturday night. Only this time, it’s in the playoffs.
In the first two meetings, the Steelers and Ravens split wins. The Steelers won an earlier game, but the Ravens added a win in the most recent contest. In addition, despite Pittsburgh earning 10 wins, Baltimore won the AFC North, and the Steelers are a Wild Card team. Thus, the Ravens are the home team in this divisional rivalry matchup in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs.
These teams know each other very well. Does that mean we’ll get a low-scoring, hard-nosed divisional matchup on Saturday night? Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NFL odds from the top sportsbooks.
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- NFL Pick: Ravens -10 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at Bet365
Steelers vs. Ravens
Saturday, January 11, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
How the Ravens Match Up
The Baltimore Ravens scored 30.47 points per game this season. Behind Lamar Jackson at quarterback, the offense was one of the best in the NFL.
Jackson put together another monster season and is in the running for another MVP award. He finished with 41 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions on the year. He also earned another 915 yards on the ground and totaled four more rushing touchdowns.
Jackson’s QBR was 77.5, which was also the best in the NFL for quarterbacks.
The difference this year was that he had a legitimate running back in Derek Henry. Henry rushed for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns in his Ravens debut this year. Henry was easily one of the missing pieces of the offense from a year ago.
That said, Pittsburgh has allowed just 98.71 yards per game on the ground this season. The Steelers held Jackson to just 22 yards on nine carries in the second regular-season meeting between the two teams. However, Henry still totaled 162 rushing yards on 24 carries and averaged almost seven yards an attempt.
If the Ravens can figure out ways to get Henry the ball in space and get Jackson some more rushing yards against the Steelers, they’ll survive and advance by doing enough on offense.
What Does Pittsburgh Need to Do to Win?
The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four straight games heading into the playoffs. This team has been cruising until it had to face many playoff teams.
The Steelers gave up at least 27 points in three of their last four games and scored no more than 17 in each of their last four. That won’t get the job done, especially against Baltimore’s potent offense.
The Steelers have scored just 22.35 points per game this season, with a differential of just 1.94. The offense has also averaged just 192 yards per game in the air and 127.41 yards on the ground.
This offense doesn’t compare to what the Ravens have to offer.
Baltimore struggled defensively to begin the season, but the Ravens have since figured some things out. They have allowed just 21.24 points per game and have held their last four opponents to no more than 17 points. Over the last two games, the Ravens have allowed just 12 points combined.
The Ravens are playing top-tier football late in the season, while the Steelers have slightly fallen off.
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are always good enough to make the playoffs. He’s just struggled to advance past that opening round lately.
NFL Picks
The Ravens likely take advantage of Pittsburgh’s average secondary. The Steelers have a lethal pass rush behind T.J. Watt, and the run defense has had its moments. But if Lamar Jackson can escape pressure and make some plays down the field, you can forget it.
Ultimately, the Ravens have done well in pass protection this season, which has helped Jackson limit mistakes.
Meanwhile, the Steelers can’t say the same. Pittsburgh hasn’t been nearly as good on the offensive line, giving the Ravens an advantage in the pass rush.
It’s way more likely the Steelers make more mistakes than the Ravens in this game. It’s a divisional rivalry matchup. Both teams know each other. But when it’s all said and done, the Ravens will likely escape with a win and cover at home.
Consider the Ravens at -10 (-110) and the Under 43.5 (-110).
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