Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s game between the Suns and Timberwolves.
Backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping, I will recommend playing the “over.”
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NBA Pick
- Suns-Timberwolves Over 214.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Target Center
Our computers indicate that these teams will combine for enough points for the “over” to hit. I agree with this projection and find that you should play the “over.”
The Low Total
We have a low total for this game because oddsmakers have much respect for Minnesota’s defense. However, the Suns don’t have any reason to respect Minnesota’s defense.
In three games against the Timberwolves this season, Phoenix scored 133, 97 and 125 points, respectively. Does that one 97-point performance give us reason to doubt what the Suns should be expected to do offensively today?
It is trivially true that shooters will shoot poorly in some games. An “under” play will require the likes of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to struggle to make shots.
Do you really want to expect these star players to lay a bunch of bricks? Are the playoffs supposed to be too big for these experienced veterans?
Just The Right Matchup
We have to expect the stars to do what they do.
This is also just the right matchup for them to succeed in. Booker and Durant have earned reputations for thriving in the mid-range. These reputations will come into play against a Minnesota defense that is vulnerable in precisely this space of the floor.
Video footage shows the ability of teams to drive inside, luring Minnesota’s defenders toward the basket, only to pull up or execute some other move that creates a favorable shooting opportunity in the mid-range.
This is what Phoenix does best. The Suns will penetrate or find some other way to attain strong mid-range scoring chances. They make the most field goals per game in the 10-19-feet spaces.
Minnesota’s Offense
Minnesota’s offense won’t have much scoring to do. It will rely on Anthony Edwards to do much of the needed work. Last year, he amassed 31.6 points per game in the postseason.
Evidently, he shines in the postseason. I don’t see Phoenix having anyone who can lock him down – the defending champion Nuggets sure couldn’t last season.
Besides Edwards, the Timberwolves can rely on a now healthy Karl-Anthony Towns and on the three-point prowess of a sizzling Mike Conley for big performances.
NBA Pick: Suns-Timberwolves Over 214.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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