The stage is set for the Kansas City Chiefs to attempt their historic three-peat against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The current NFL odds have the Chiefs as slight -1.5 favorites to make history.
Much of the internet has been set ablaze by the idea that Kansas City signal-caller Patrick Mahomes has been the beneficiary of sweetheart calls from the zebras – likening his jersey number (15) to the amount of yards the opposing team is penalized for making contact with him.
Super Bowl LIX Odds
Super bowl
NFL 2025
| Chiefs | Eagles |
|---|---|
| -1.5 -109 | +1.5 -112 |
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
The total points market is set at 49 – suggesting what could be a defensive. The Eagles are fresh off a dominant 7 rushing TD performance against the Washington Commanders; though it is unlikely that the Eagles will enjoy as much success on the ground against the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs defense.
Keys to a Chiefs Victory
Kansas City has been here before, and the blueprint for success remains the same—control the trenches, protect Patrick Mahomes, and capitalize on critical moments. Against an Eagles team built to dominate physically, the Chiefs must find ways to counter Philadelphia’s strengths while leaning on their own advantages. Here’s what they need to do to secure another championship.
LIMIT BARKLEY’S IMPACT
One of Kansas City’s biggest issues in the AFC Championship Game was stopping James Cook. Despite only 13 carries, he racked up 85 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over five yards per carry on nine attempts. If Buffalo had leaned on him more, the game could have gone differently.
While the Bills had a respectable ground attack—ranking ninth in rushing attempts and yards—they still relied primarily on Josh Allen. The Chiefs’ run defense, a top-10 unit all season, was unexpectedly carved up by Cook’s efficiency.
Philadelphia presents an even bigger challenge. The Eagles own the league’s second-best rushing attack, spearheaded by Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. They led the NFL in carries and ranked second in both rushing yards and touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per attempt. This isn’t a team that breaks out occasionally—it dominates consistently.
The offensive scheme remains similar to what powered the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, but this time, Barkley replaces Miles Sanders, adding a more dynamic element to the backfield. Unlike Buffalo, Philadelphia won’t ignore its best weapon, and few teams match its dominance in the trenches.
That said, Kansas City faced a similar challenge last time and held Eagles running backs to just 17 carries for 45 yards. Hurts shouldered most of the rushing load with 70 yards and three touchdowns on 15 attempts.
For the Chiefs to control the game and create enough possessions to hit 30 points again, neutralizing Barkley is critical. They’ve only scored 29 or more points three times this season, making ball control a key component of Philadelphia’s strategy.
KEEP MAHOMES UPRIGHT
Kansas City’s offensive line hasn’t been as steady as in previous seasons, and that’s been evident in the playoffs. Joe Thuney has performed well at left tackle, but interior protection remains a concern. Guards Mike Caliendo and Trey Smith have combined to allow 11 pressures on just 58 passing plays, per PFF.
That’s a major problem against Philadelphia’s front seven. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams wreak havoc inside, while Nolan Smith has emerged as one of the most disruptive edge rushers in the league. The Eagles’ defensive line depth is unmatched, with Jordan Davis, Jalyx Hunt, Moro Ojomo, and Josh Sweat rotating in waves.
The one equalizer? Mahomes himself. His ability to maneuver the pocket and get the ball out quickly neutralizes aggressive pass rushes. Kansas City has also transitioned to a more Yards After Catch (YAC)-focused passing attack, reducing its reliance on deep, slow-developing routes.
Over the past month, Mahomes’ time-to-throw has improved significantly, making it even harder for defenses to get to him. If Philadelphia’s pass rush fails to land consistent hits on Mahomes, the Chiefs gain a significant edge.
EXECUTE IN CRUCIAL MOMENTS
Kansas City’s dominance in key situations isn’t about officiating—it’s about execution. With elite coaching, a top-four roster, and one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, the Chiefs force opponents into near-flawless football.
Winning the turnover battle and penalty margin is a major factor. Buffalo briefly shifted momentum in the AFC Championship Game by forcing a fumble, but critical mistakes and 27 more penalty yards than Kansas City ultimately cost them. Philadelphia can’t afford the same lapses.
The Chiefs led the NFL in fewest penalties per game (5.4), while the Eagles weren’t far behind (5.9). A clean, mistake-free performance is vital for Philadelphia’s strategy—control the clock, limit Mahomes’ possessions, and unleash the pass rush when possible.
Giving Mahomes free yards is a recipe for disaster. If the Eagles find themselves behind the sticks too often, they’ll be forced to put even more on Hurts’ shoulders. In a game of razor-thin margins, those small details can decide everything.
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Keys to an Eagles Victory
The Eagles have the personnel to challenge the Chiefs, but execution will determine the outcome. Controlling the tempo, limiting mistakes, and making life difficult for Mahomes are all essential to Philadelphia’s game plan. If they can dictate the pace and exploit key matchups, they have a clear path to victory.
HANDLE KANSAS CITY’S PRESSURE
Every quarterback struggles under pressure, but Jalen Hurts sees one of the league’s biggest drop-offs when facing the blitz. The Chiefs rank 13th in blitz rate, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been elite at scheming free rushers since taking over in 2019.
Hurts’ mobility allows him to occasionally extend plays, but he’s more of a power runner than a slippery escape artist. When pressured, his time-to-throw was the third-highest in the NFL, and his efficiency plummeted—his yards per attempt dropped from 9.3 to 4.9, while his turnover-worthy throw rate spiked from 1.8% to 5.3%. That’s a massive concern.
Philadelphia boasts the league’s best offensive line, but Hurts’ 12% sack rate against the blitz highlights the need for a quick-pass game plan. Spagnuolo’s aggressive schemes demand built-in hot reads and fast decisions from Hurts.
LEVERAGE A.J. BROWN’S DOMINANCE
Few receivers punish man coverage like A.J. Brown, making his matchup with Trent McDuffie one of the game’s most crucial battles. McDuffie played a major role in Kansas City’s Super Bowl LVII win and is expected to shadow Brown throughout the contest.
Kansas City runs heavy doses of Cover 1, often mixing in bracket doubles. Against Hurts, they may shift to more zone looks to limit his rushing ability. However, there will be times when McDuffie or Jaylen Watson must go one-on-one against Brown’s physicality.
Philadelphia must exploit those opportunities. McDuffie is as sticky in coverage as any corner in the league, but he lacks the size to neutralize Brown entirely. Moving Brown into the slot more often—where he’s lined up just 18% of the time this season—could force the Chiefs into uncomfortable adjustments.
CONTROL THE TEMPO ON THE GROUND
Kansas City isn’t known for putting up huge rushing numbers, but the timing of their runs could be a deciding factor. The Eagles’ elite run defense is built to dictate terms, forcing the Chiefs to throw first in order to open up running lanes—a strategy Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes execute better than anyone.
That said, critical moments will arise where Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, or Mahomes himself need to extend drives or finish in the red zone. Every successful ground conversion chips away at Philadelphia’s dominance in the trenches. Limiting those key runs will be essential for the Eagles to maintain control.
Chiefs’ and Eagles’ Super Bowl History
The Kansas City Chiefs are chasing an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl crown, while the Philadelphia Eagles are eyeing a second title overall in the NFL’s championship game on February 9 in New Orleans. The clash will be a rematch of Super Bowl LVII in 2023 when the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35.
CHIEFS AND EAGLES’ PLAYOFF HISTORY AND WINS
The Chiefs have played 47 playoff games (26-21) since their formation in 1959, winning four Super Bowls — the third highest in the league’s history alongside the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers.
The Eagles have played 54 playoff games (28-26) since being founded 91 years ago, winning their only Super Bowl in 2018 when they beat the New England Patriots.
WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THESE TWO TEAMS PLAYED IN THE SUPER BOWL?
The Eagles’ latest Super Bowl appearance came in 2023 when they let a 10-point halftime lead slip through their fingers as the Chiefs triumphed 38-35 at Super Bowl 57.
The Chiefs will make their fifth trip to the NFL title decider in six years and could become the first team to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy three years in a row if they beat the Eagles, having beaten the San Francisco 49ers last year.
CHIEFS AND EAGLES’ SUPER BOWL HISTORY COMPARED
The Eagles have played in four Super Bowls in their history, losing three.
The Chiefs hold a commanding 4-2 record in six Super Bowls.
CHIEFS AND EAGLES’ MEMORABLE SUPER BOWL APPEARANCES
For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes threw a touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman in overtime to give his side a 25-22 win over the 49ers in a Super Bowl thriller to cement their status as an NFL dynasty last year.
In 2018, the Eagles delivered an inspiring effort by upsetting the then defending champions the Patriots with a 41-33 victory to clinch their only Super Bowl title, completing a remarkable turnaround after finishing last in their division in the 2016-17 season.
