Super Bowl LX Odds: Can the Bills Finally Go All the Way?

Bills vs. Ravens: Beating the Five-Year Rule

Buffalo has advanced to the AFC Championship Game twice in the Josh Allen era, and both times it was by defeating the Ravens in the divisional round in Buffalo (2020 and 2024).

The Bills needed some help from the Ravens this past year, including a +3 edge in turnovers and a huge dropped 2-point conversion pass by Mark Andrews in the end zone as the Ravens lost 27-25. It was the only game all year where Lamar Jackson had multiple giveaways.

This is turning into a rivalry with the fanbases attacking each other relentlessly over the 2024 MVP race where Allen edged out Jackson by a few votes in a surprise win. That should only add to the fire of Jackson and company to do better in 2025. The Ravens will also be visiting Buffalo again for a rematch in the regular season.

The Bills have to feel somewhat comfortable in playing this Baltimore team based on past matchups, but there was that 35-10 slaughtering in Baltimore in Week 4 this past year. The Ravens usually do a nice job of limiting Josh Allen, and even in the playoff win, he didn’t even have 150 total yards of offense.

The things these teams have in common include a failure to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, the failure to get to a single Super Bowl despite incredible scoring differential numbers since 2019, and they also have to beat the Five-Year Rule.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

No team has ever won its first Super Bowl by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than 5 years. Allen-Sean McDermott and Jackson-John Harbaugh are going into Year 8 of their partnerships in Buffalo and Baltimore, respectively, so they are really challenging the Five-Year Rule.

There’s also the fact that out of the 35 quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, 34 of them at least got to a Super Bowl in their first 5 trips to the playoffs. Only Peyton Manning (9th season and 7th playoff trip) needed more than a handful of postseasons to get it done, so that’s also the rare company that Allen and Jackson will try to join.

But while the Ravens are reliably a good team, they play in a tougher division than the Bills, and given the home-field advantage the Bills get over Baltimore head-to-head, that could be enough to make sure the playoff rematch is in Buffalo again. Given the way the Ravens have played in the playoffs in the Jackson era, that’s not a good thing for Baltimore.

You also have to consider that Derrick Henry is another year older and they’ll have to make some decision on the Justin Tucker situation after some troubling off-field accusations have emerged. The Ravens could look a bit different in 2025, though, to be fair, they also didn’t have No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers available in the playoffs.

Bills vs. Chiefs: Pass Rush in the Playoffs

This is another tough one as the Bills are infamously 0-4 in the playoffs against the Chiefs since 2020. That’s not the 1st time Buffalo went 0-4 in the playoffs in historic fashion. But it is the only time in NFL history that one starting quarterback has lost 4 straight playoff games to another quarterback (Patrick Mahomes).

Sean McDermott coaches good defenses in the regular season, but he always falls apart badly in the playoffs against the Chiefs, who had arguably their best game all year in the AFC Championship Game, a 32-29 victory where Mahomes again drove down the field in the 4th quarter for the game-winning drive.

McDermott doesn’t need to shut Mahomes down like the Eagles did in the Super Bowl. But he has to show he can at least make him look below average instead of allowing a mediocre Kansas City offense in 2023 and 2024 to have some of its best games all year in the playoffs.

This is really where team building comes into play. The Bills have enough as is to beat the Ravens, but you cannot say the same about the Chiefs. Sure, they beat them in the regular season every year, and they’ll meet again in Buffalo in 2025.

But come playoff time, it was never clearer than in 2024 that the Chiefs held back things in that Week 11 matchup and brought out new wrinkles in the title game that the Bills weren’t ready for.

The Bills need more polished receiver play to keep up with the Chiefs. They had Keon Coleman playing through injury at the end of his rookie season. Amari Cooper really didn’t have a desired impact after trading for him during the season. Curtis Samuel wasn’t much of a factor all year. Tight end Dalton Kincaid had a down year and dropped that tough pass on 4th down at the end of the game.

Dominant O-Line, But No Finishing Touch

The Bills had a great offensive line, but they didn’t use James Cook enough in the playoff game. They also couldn’t make the quarterback sneak work against the Chiefs despite killing every other team with it the last 2 years.

But the bigger change needs to come on defense. Enough of this worrying about if Matt Milano or a random corner can stay healthy for a full playoff run. The Bills simply don’t have the pass rusher to get after Mahomes and dominate in a matchup the way the Eagles crushed the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59 with a 4-man rush over and over. Keep in mind the Chiefs were playing the same players against Buffalo as they did the Eagles, and the results were night and day.

The Bills haven’t had a defender with 11.0 sacks in a season since 2016, the year before McDermott arrived. They need to get an elite edge rusher to get after Mahomes so that they don’t have to worry about blitzing. If that means trading premium picks for Myles Garrett (Browns) or Maxx Crosby (Raiders), then so be it. It’s not like those picks are likely going to hit at a high rate anyway. When you’re this close to the Super Bowl, you have to strike now while your quarterback is still in his twenties.

If the Bills don’t go out and get a big-time pass rusher, it’s hard to take them seriously in the playoffs against the Chiefs, who could be healthier next year if they get Rashee Rice back and focus the offense more on him and Xavier Worthy rather than an aging Travis Kelce.

Bills vs. Eagles: Remembering 2023

Believe it or not, but the Bills will also host the Eagles in the 2025 regular season, so they’ll get all 3 of these teams in Buffalo. That’s a nice advantage to think about for the No. 1 seed and for getting a look at the teams they may need to beat to win Super Bowl 60, according to top sportsbooks.

The Bills and Eagles last played in 2023, an overtime classic with plenty of lead changes. The Eagles saved themselves with a 59-yard field goal in the rain to force overtime before they won 37-34 on a game-winning touchdown run by Jalen Hurts.

The Eagles should be a strong team once again in 2025 as their core is so young. They did a great job of replacing Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox this past year. Saquon Barkley will be back, and even if he doesn’t break as many long runs, he’s still a threat behind that elite offensive line, which is staying intact. They also are keeping their weapons for Hurts, who has the maniacal mindset to repeat.

It’s easy to say the Bills would have given the Eagles a better fight in Super Bowl 59 than what the Chiefs did, but it’s hard to say they would have won the game. They have issues at stopping the run in Buffalo, and the Eagles can easily exploit that with Hurts and Barkley. They also lack a shutdown corner, so A.J. Brown could have a big game.

Eagles Reloaded: Can Buffalo Keep Up?

The Bills’ lack of great wide receivers could also be exposed against the great coverage the Eagles had, and their rookie corners (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) won’t be rookies anymore in 2025.

It’s not unrealistic for the Eagles to have a stronger team in 2025 than they had this year, and the 2024 Eagles were a couple of dropped passes away from finishing 20-1. Their biggest threat could be if Washington goes on a spending spree to help Jayden Daniels get a step further in 2025. No one’s repeated as NFC East champions since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.

But while the NFC loves new contenders, the Eagles have broken the mold a bit with 3 Super Bowl appearances since the 2017 season, including 2-of-3 since 2022. They would be a tough out for the Bills in a Super Bowl in San Francisco next February.

But at this point, the Bills might be fortunate just to get to a Super Bowl.

Bills vs. Themselves: Turnover Regression

We’ve already identified Buffalo’s weaknesses at pass rusher and wide receiver that they’ll need to address in free agency and the draft. We’ve highlighted their positive schedule in the way they get their toughest opponents at home while playing in a division they have owned since 2020 that is unlikely to get that much stronger in 2025.

But something the Bills will need to watch out for in 2025 is turnover regression, because it’s almost certainly coming. The Bills were +24 in turnover margin last year (+28 including playoffs), and that includes an absurd +14 in fumble recoveries (+17 including playoffs), tied for the second-largest differential since 2000.

Turnovers are notoriously fluky and regress to the mean on both sides of the ball. The Bills are the 1st team since at least 1992 to not lose any fumbles from non-quarterback positions for an entire season. Josh Allen had all 8 of the team’s turnovers, and that’s still such a low number for him. It’s unlikely he waited until Year 7 to figure out how to not turn it over, and it’s not likely the Bills have figured out how to never fumble the ball away.

Super Bowl or Bust?

The Bills recovered all 5 fumbles in the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City and still lost. Don’t count on them being that lucky in the fumble (and interception) department in 2025.

So, as it stands today, the Bills probably don’t have the talent to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl. Sure, it could happen with enough good bounces in the playoffs. But other teams are going to be favored, and if the Bills can’t get the No. 1 seed, then it’s hard to predict them to be the last team standing.

But if they take an all-in approach and get a pass rusher, get another weapon like Deebo Samuel or Cooper Kupp, and they get development from their young players like Coleman and Kincaid, then maybe they can get it done.

But as a believer in the Five-Year Rule, it might take a new coach to get over the hump. We know Allen isn’t going anywhere, so it’s McDermott who eventually has to fall on the sword here.

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