While Super Bowl LX is far away, it is precisely this remoteness that creates betting value in some teams, so let’s take a look at the current NFL futures odds and get ahead of the action!
NFL Pick
- Cardinals to Win Super Bowl LX (+6000) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Are The Favorites Worth Betting On Now?
If you tell your friends that you are going to bet on the Super Bowl LX winner, most of them might think you’re crazy. This is because it seems like only a few teams are realistic options and these options are not priced attractively.
Of course, in February, we feel like the teams that we just saw in the playoffs are the likeliest ones to compete for the Super Bowl.
Those teams, including the latest Super Bowl competitors and the squads that either advanced to their respective conference championship games or were dominant in the regular season, are all rather heavily favored.
According to Bet365, the Chiefs and Eagles are both the most heavily favored at +650. Then the Bills and Ravens follow at +700. The NFC’s top seed Detroit is next at +900.
The Risk of Betting Too Early
People who think it is crazy to invest right now in the next Super Bowl winner recognize that a lot of bad things can happen to these teams from now until then. The potential for negative transformation — as in, for example, Philly’s star running back Saquon Barkley getting injured after he accumulated such a massive number of carries this year — outweighs the potential for positive transformation.
The heavy favorites are not worth investing in at their current price, because their odds are already low and we can’t assume that they’ll take the necessary steps to reach the Super Bowl or manage to remain good enough to reach the Super Bowl.
We can’t know whether the Eagles will succumb to the notorious Super Bowl hangover, like the Rams did recently.
While the Chiefs are great, the AFC is too stacked to justify investing in the favorite. Baltimore and Buffalo, for that matter, need to undertake a lot, especially for their respective defenses.
Detroit’s offensive and defensive coordinator departures create a significant question mark.
Some of these teams might indeed manage to look like viable contenders in Week 15 of the upcoming season. But their price won’t be that much more attractive than it is now. There just is not any betting value in them.
Wagering on a Sleeper Is Worthwhile
It is worth placing a bet on the winner of Super Bowl LX now because there are interesting teams out there that have a more or less realistic chance of turning out to be a legitimate candidate to win the Super Bowl.
Whereas an investment in a team like Detroit makes no sense now given its potential to regress after losing both coordinators and because it is already priced below +1000, there are teams that appear to be wildly mispriced that, after the offseason and at some point during the upcoming season, will see a massive drop in their odds.
The point of wagering now is that we want to invest in a good sleeper team before its odds experience that massive drop.
What A Sleeper Doesn’t Need to Be
A sleeper Super Bowl candidate does not actually need to be elite, further suggesting that the more heavily favored teams are not worth investing in.
Consider the 2012 Ravens: they ranked tenth in offense and twelfth in defense. More recently, the 2021 Rams ranked eighth in offense and 15th in defense.
We do need to select a good team, however. Once a good team gets into the postseason, history shows that it can surprise people by advancing past the higher-ranked teams.
The Criteria
To summarize the above, a good sleeper team needs to be a good team. But, to be even clearer, it needs to be a good team by the time the regular season starts. We are in February now and have the whole offseason ahead of us.
The team also needs to have a great chance at making the playoffs, which means that it needs to have the personnel to beat enough teams on its schedule. Again, the personnel do not need to be elite, especially if the opponents tend to be weaker.
When judging a team’s performance last season and prognosticating quality in a team several months from now, bright spots matter greatly. I am interested in a team that has shown that it has what it takes to be very good, even if it is not consistently good. Obviously, the favored teams like Detroit were consistently very good, but I already explained why we want a sleeper team.
I am also interested in a team that has great potential to transform itself into an even stronger squad.
So, in sum, I am specifically looking at strength of schedule and salary cap. I want promising teams that have easy opponents, which will ensure a higher likelihood of making the playoffs, and that have cap space with which to acquire strong players that will lower their odds of winning the Super Bowl.
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Based on last season’s records, the Cardinals get a very easy group of opponents. They’ll have the fifth-easiest schedule. Moreover, they have the fourth-highest effective cap space.
Offseason Advantages
Their team is already very promising, as it ranked eleventh in total offense last year and 20th in total defense. These rankings do not position them far away from the 2012 Ravens and 2021 Rams. This is a vastly improving team, one that ranked 29th in DVOA in 2023 and 12th in DVOA last year, progressing from 4-13 in 2023 to 8-9 last year, and now getting an easy schedule next season.
Their back seven on defense is especially promising, with Garrett Williams ranking as PFF’s sixth-best cornerback last year and safety Budda Baker earning All-Pro honors yet again.
One can assume that Arizona will focus, in the offseason, on developing its defensive line. A stronger defensive line will help its run defense improve and will create a helpful pass rush without which Arizona’s pass defense still ranked above average thanks to its continually progressing defensive backs.
Offensive Talent
On offense, the Cardinals have one of the best tight ends and a developing wide receiver who was the team’s fourth overall draft pick last year. Marvin Harrison Jr. showed great promise based on his number of route wins and his win rate against man coverage.
He was the team’s top wide receiver and will be more productive when his quarterback has more time to find him on intermediate and deep passing plays.
Next to the defensive line, expect Arizona to prioritize its offensive line in the offseason in order to give its quarterback added time in the pocket. Adding another wide receiver will further help the offense.
Murray’s Potential
Kyler Murray gets a lot of criticism but his career passer rating is almost identical to that of the quarterback who was just named Super Bowl MVP. Murray has the talent to take his team to the promised land. A dangerous and productive big-play runner like Jalen Hurts, he is a capable dual-threat quarterback who will benefit tremendously from a stronger supporting cast.
The run game is already solid. Arizona’s ranked seventh largely thanks to the creativity of its offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, who is at his best when he can lean on running back James Conner, who was a big reason for Arizona’s offense already nearly being top-ten last year.
Takeaway
Arizona’s price is incredible given the pieces it has, the pieces it can acquire, and the ease of its competition. For the above reasons, the Cardinals are your best Super Bowl LX value pick. You should wager on them now.
NFL Pick: Cardinals to Win Super Bowl LX (+6000) at Bet365Â
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
