The Houston Texans will look to follow up on their Wild Card Weekend win over the Los Angeles Chargers when they travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Saturday.
Kansas City had a bye last week and has been resting up in preparation of this huge game. When the up-and-coming Texans take on the defending champion Chiefs, who should you back to make a winning NFL pick at the top-rated sportsbooks?
NFL Pick
- Houston Texans +8 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Texans on Fire
The Houston Texans are playing their best football at the right time. They looked absolutely dominant in their Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Texans won 32-13 and intercepted Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times in the decisive win.
The Texans’ defense stole the show but their offense was efficient as well. All three stars showed up to play:
- QB C.J. Stroud went 22-33 for 282 yards.
- RB Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards and rushed for a touchdown.
- WR Nico Collins had 122 yards receiving with one touchdown.
The Texans will need another balanced performance from their offensive stars if they’re going to want to keep this next game close.
The Texans are still a high-profile offense but the strength of this team is the defense. The Texans are 6th in the league in overall yards allowed at 315 and 7th in the league in passing yards allowed at 220.8. The Texans are going to need another great performance from that defense going against the innovative Kansas City offense.
Rest vs. Rust
As we always do this time of year, it is time for the “rest vs. rust” argument when it comes to the number one seed.
Not only did the Chiefs have the bye last week, they sat their starters in their Week 18 game. This means it’ll be 3 weeks without a meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. How will this affect the defending Super Bowl champions?
One thing going in the Chiefs’ favor is having an old-school head coach like Andy Reid leading the way. The Chiefs run hard, physical practices, which means they should not suffer as much rust as a team such as the Philadelphia Eagles or the Los Angeles Rams that typically runs very light practices during the week. This commitment to hard-nosed, physical practices should help the Chiefs avoid some of the rust that has plagued number-one seeds in the past.
Health Check
The Chiefs seem to be getting healthy at the right time.
They have WR Hollywood Brown back in the lineup, which should help their passing offense. Last season, Travis Kelce had a quiet regular season but became his Hall of Fame self in the playoffs. Will Kelce have another playoff break out this season?
The Chiefs have also been led by their defense. They are 9th in overall defense with 320.6 yards allowed. The Chiefs are eighth in rushing defense only allowing 101.8 yards per game. The Chiefs will be looking to stop running back Joe Mixon, so their rushing defense will be a key to this game.
The Chiefs and the Texans played on December 21st in Kansas City. In that game, the Chiefs won 27-19. In that game, the Chiefs’ defense intercepted Houston Texas quarterback C.J. Stroud two times. That was also the game where the Texans lost wide receiver Tank Dell for the season, and you can see the Texan’s sideline was visibly shaken by Dell’s loss.
The Texans will need to protect the ball and avoid interceptions if they are going to want a different result in this game.
Key Matchup: Houston Offensive Line vs. Chiefs Defensive Line
The Texans are going to need to run the ball behind Joe Mixon and protect C.J. Stroud if they’re going to want to have a chance to keep this game close.
The Texans will need to establish the run and also protect Stroud up the middle.
The Texans’ interior offensive line has been vulnerable this season and that will be a tough task going against one of the best defensive players in the league, Chiefs’ defensive tackle Chris Jones. The Texans are going to have to come up with multiple schemes to slow Jones down or this could be a long day for their offense.
The Pick
The Chiefs always seem to win, but they don’t cover big spreads very often. When these two teams played in December, the line closed at 3. Now the line is 8?
I don’t think the teams have changed that much since then. I’m going to count on the Texans to bounce back. The Texans suffered an emotional blow during that game losing Tank Dell. Still, they should look better and the fact that they will come into this game on a roll should help.
While I don’t think the rest will be a huge factor, the Chiefs could start slow and this will definitely help the Texans when it comes to covering the spread. And although I do think the Chiefs will win, the 8 points are simply too much.
Take the Houston Texans +8.
NFL Pick: Houston Texans +8 (-110) at Bet365
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