The sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s game between the Texans and Cowboys, so let’s find the best bet for this game!
NFL Pick: Texans -7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
Monday, November 18, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Home Field Disadvantage
Houston is favored by as few points as it currently is because Dallas is playing at home.
Oddsmakers assume that home teams have an advantage, which they account for in the odds. However, playing at home has presented a disadvantage to the Cowboys.
They have been blown out in all four of their home games so far. Their loss to Baltimore only appears close because they scored meaningless points toward the end of the game.
Otherwise, they lost by 25 points to the Saints — who turned out to be a bad team — by 36 points to the Lions, and by 28 points to the Eagles.
Because the Texans are the road team, we are automatically getting a good deal by betting them because they are favored by fewer points despite the fact that they have an advantage by playing in Dallas.
Cooper Rush’s Winning Record
A Cowboy backer could make the following argument: “Dallas is as big of an underdog as it is because Cooper Rush is its quarterback, although Rush has a winning record as a starter. So, Dallas is being treated by oddsmakers like a significant underdog when in fact it has an advantage from Rush starting.”
In 2022, it is true that Rush won four of the five games in which he started for Dak Prescott. However, let’s consider the scores of those games.
When Dallas won those four games, its opponents scored 17, 16, ten, and ten points, respectively. The Cowboys won those games largely due to the quality of their defense.
Dallas’ Poor Defense
Relative to 2022, the Cowboys have dropped 13 spots in total defense. They currently rank 26th in the category. Most recently, for example, they gave up 34 points in their blowout loss to the Eagles.
They even had Micah Parsons healthy for that game, but Dallas’ defense has so many problems that Parsons’ availability is inconsequential.
Joe Mixon’s Outlook
Thanks largely to Joe Mixon, Houston now has a run game with which to complement its stacked pass attack. Its ground game can thrive against a Dallas defense that ranks second-to-last in stopping the run. The Cowboys are one of two teams to allow over 150 rushing yards per game.
When Houston quarterback CJ Stroud was off — partly because he lacked healthy wide receivers — two weeks ago against the Jets, it was Mixon who was running hard to keep his team competitive.
In this game, he’ll get to play a merely supportive role in which he can build on his 4.3 YPC average, a figure that is deflated by the fact that he just played against Detroit’s elite run defense.
Houston’s Healthier Pass Attack
Stroud has had his struggles due to injuries to his wide receivers.
The most important injury is Nico Collins’. Collins is a physically extremely talented wide receiver who, among other things, dominates man coverage. He was the NFL’s leading wide receiver when he got injured. With him, Stroud averages close to 100 passing yards more per game than when he is absent.
Houston used Mixon and Stroud’s competence to manage 23 points against a tough Detroit defense, but now it will re-add Collins to its pass attack’s arsenal. His head coach has articulated the expectation that he will play in Monday’s game.
This pass attack will thrive against a Dallas defense that already does a terrible job of preventing quarterbacks from being efficient and ranks toward the bottom in EPA/DB (expected points allowed for every time that the opposing quarterback drops back).
Dallas’ Weak Offense
Dallas is led by a very feeble quarterback in Rush. Last week, Rush managed a pathetic 45 passing yards on 23 attempts against Philadelphia’s defense.
In six tries, he failed to complete a single pass that traveled more than ten yards through the air. His backup quarterback is no better at passing the ball. It says everything that, despite Lance’s superiority as an athlete, Dallas’ coaching staff continues to want to start Rush.
Rush’s Bad Situation
On top of everything else, Rush is not supported by a dangerous running back, and his pass protection is likewise weak.
The inefficiency of Dallas’ rush attack attests to the difficulty that the Cowboys’ offensive line has with getting a push. It gets worse: Houston’s pass defense features a solid pair of cornerbacks that helps it rank fourth-best. The Texans are one of four teams to allow fewer than 180 passing yards per game.
Takeaway
Houston’s stout defense has an easy test on Monday, but it will be too angry to take it easy. The Texans are coming off consecutive losses, their last one being a narrowly-decided game that they blew late.
Focused Houston will thrive with a balanced offensive attack that will prolong the woes of vulnerable Dallas’ run-and-pass defense.
NFL Pick: Texans -7.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
