The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the upcoming Divisional Round contest between the Texans and Ravens.
Houston undoubtedly looks like a very enticing pick because, on national television, we all just saw quarterback CJ Stroud eviscerate a highly-ranked Cleveland Browns defense. Led by Stroud, Houston’s offense looks unstoppable.
But, as I will discuss, Baltimore is not Cleveland. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Texans team total “under” and in the full-game “under.”
I do also like the Ravens to cover, and my reasoning for Baltimore covering will follow from my discussion of the Ravens’ defensive outlook.
Pick Summary
- Under 45 (-110)
- Texans Under 16.5 Points (+105)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Houston’s Last Game
Houston’s last game creates such a positive impression of its offensive firepower. Because this impression is attracting bettors to Houston, we need to address its source. First of all, what the Texans did offensively was anomalous. They scored 45 points against the Browns, which is almost twice as much as what they average per game in this entire season.
The Texans benefited from the ineptitude of Cleveland’s defense on the road. The Browns repeatedly allow opposing quarterbacks to thrive when those opposing quarterbacks are playing at home. In other words, what Houston did to Cleveland is nothing new and nothing special.
For example, the Rams, led by Matthew Stafford, scored 36 points at home against the Browns. Houston has failed to exceed 20 points in six different games this season, so it does often happen that its offense struggles.
The key is to find out whether this game will be another one in which the Texans struggle to score.
Baltimore’s Defense
Whereas the Browns allow over 120 yards per game more on the road than they do at home, the Ravens get to play in front of their home crowd.
They’ve put together some of their best defensive performances at home. In Week seven, they held the Lions to six points. In Week 1, they limited Houston to nine points.
Overall, Baltimore’s defense is certainly elite: the Ravens rank first in scoring defense, allowing a league-low 16.5 points, and fifth in total defense. The Ravens’ defense will pose a unique challenge to Stroud.
Houston vs. Good Defenses
The counter to the quip about Houston’s Week 1 loss to Baltimore is that the Texans are young offensively and have developed significantly since that opening-season defeat. But Houston’s poor performance in that game is consistent with other poor performances, such as when it scored 13 points in Week 8 in Carolina and six points against the Jets in Week 14.
What those two teams have in common is that they defend the pass superbly – the Panthers rank third against the pass and the Jets rank first against the pass.
Stroud, as much as he has developed, still struggles reliably against strong pass defenses – and Baltimore, which ranks fifth against the pass, certainly counts as having a strong pass defense. His ability to succeed in a given game is crucial to the overall outlook of his team’s offense – and of his team – because he is Houston’s offensive centerpiece.
The Texans won’t win by relying on the run. They’ll want to lean on their star quarterback, but he will fail again to deliver for them against a strong pass defense.
Game Script
Game script is crucial to whether the over/under hits in a given game.
As bettors wagering on the “under” for this game, we would be in trouble if Lamar Jackson had to throw the ball a lot, because he is in a pass-heavier offense now – headed by Todd Monken – to which he has grown accustomed to.
But with Houston’s offense struggling, the Ravens won’t feel pressured to push the ball downfield.
Weather
This is especially so in view of the weather conditions, which are looking ugly for this game. Expect 20-degree weather, wind, and perhaps some form of precipitation.
Such weather will certainly make things all the harder for Stroud, who has typically played in a dome or in nicer conditions outside. But such weather will also give Baltimore added reason to run the ball more and, in this way, to keep the clock ticking, so that fewer plays are run in this game and so that the “under” is quicker to hit.
Bad weather is also something that Lamar Jackson dislikes. Jackson is known to run a lot, and ball-carrying has been a known problem for him in ugly weather. While he is the stronger quarterback facing a soft defense, he won’t make much use of his edge.
While I do think Baltimore covers the spread, this will be a lower-scoring game in which running prevails over passing as the predominant means of attempting to advance drives, such that the clock keeps ticking and both offenses fail to make enough big plays – especially downfield – to approach the “over.”
NFL Pick: Under 45 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Texans Under 16.5 Points (+105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
