The CFP Semifinal game between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies will be an absolute banger! Both offenses have dominated all season. Will that continue in the Sugar Bowl?
Picks Summary
- Washington +4 (-110)
- Over 63.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 08:45 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
It’s a breath of fresh air knowing that the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies won’t be dealing with opt-outs heading into the College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup at the Super Bowl.
Texas lost a few players to the transfer portal but lost nobody significant. Meanwhile, WR Xavier Worthy and CB Ryan Watts were injured over the last month. However, head coach Steve Sarkisian is confident that those two will be ready for this game. That’s the beauty of waiting a full month to play in the next game.
Texas’ Strong Season
The Texas Longhorns went 12-1 on the season but are ranked No. 3 in college football. They lost earlier to Oklahoma, on the road, in a huge Big 12 matchup. But later, Texas earned a Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma State and earned a CFP bid thanks to a win against Alabama earlier in the season.
On the other hand, Washington went undefeated and earned a Pac-12 title. The Huskies added multiple wins against Oregon to cement their season.
Both teams have scored more than 36 points per game. However, Texas has the better defense after only allowing 17.54 points per game this year. The Longhorns gave up 224.92 yards in the air but only 81.08 yards on the ground.
Washington’s Penix Jr.
But while Washington rushed for over 125 yards per game this season, the Huskies don’t mind throwing the football with Michael Penix Jr. Penix Jr. was a Heisman finalist and almost won the award after taking the Huskies to a perfect 13-0 regular season.
He threw for 4,218 yards and added 33 touchdowns with only nine interceptions on the year. Meanwhile, Dillon Johnson added 1,113 yards on the ground on 201 carries. He earned 14 touchdowns and added 5.5 yards per carry this season.
The Huskies were elite on offense all year long. However, the Pac-12 is known for being offense-heavy. Some of the defenses in the Pac-12 played like Swiss cheese, including teams like USC and Colorado, along with Arizona State.
Texas faced the harder competition, even if the Big 12 wasn’t as good as it normally is.
Quarterback Duel and Team Dynamics
At Texas, the Longhorns relied on Quin Ewers under center. He missed a couple of games due to injury earlier in the season. But he still added 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions and had a 79 QBR, which was good for 16th in the league.
The Longhorns lost their top running back, Jonathan Brooks, to an injury late in the season. He already had over 1,100 yards and averaged 6.1 yards a carry this season. However, Texas is now using C.J. Baxter and Jaydon Blue as their two running backs.
In comparison, Washington’s got the better secondary and is better against the pass despite a weaker pass rush. On the other hand, Texas is much better against the run and just much bigger up front as a whole.
Meanwhile, Penix Jr. is the better quarterback and has healthy and reliable receivers. The Huskies also have their No. 1 running back, while Texas doesn’t.
This game will be closer than some think. I’ll take the Huskies at +4.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
What About The Total?
While Texas and Washington have great defenses, the offenses are just way better.
Both teams have added over 36 points per game. Washington has thrown for 338.15 yards and has rushed for 125.23 yards per game this season. With the Longhorns’ secondary not elite, Washington will make massive plays down the field that could go for big gains.
Conversely, although Texas doesn’t have Brooks, the Longhorns have added nearly 275 yards per game in the air and another 189.08 yards on the ground. Texas can dictate this game by earning some big plays on the ground behind Baxter and Blue.
There are ways for both offenses to attack. Washington is weaker against the run, while Texas isn’t all that against the pass.
Both teams will get theirs. Take the Over at -110 betting odds in the Sugar Bowl. It’s likely both teams find their way into the 30’s.
NCAAF Pick: Over 63.5 (-110) at Caesars SportsbookÂ
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
