With two massive NFL Playoff games on tonight’s slate, the NBA only has one game on the schedule. Still, the AI Model shows that this game has some value.
The AI Model suggests the Thunder and Blazers will score 227 points in tonight’s game, resulting in a 119-108 Oklahoma City win. Meanwhile, the Blazers are +13.5, and the total is set at 225.5 via Caesars.
That means the AI Model likes and projects the Blazers to cover an 11-point loss. It also likes the Over to get through. I’ll share some of the reasoning below.
Picks Summary
- Trail Blazers +13.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Over 225.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Get Ready For Exceptional Offense From OKC!
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a 121-115 loss to the Dallas Mavericks at home. Ultimately, the Thunder are 36-8 on the season and aren’t used to losing. They’re also very good at prepping after a loss. The Thunder shouldn’t have any problems scoring against Portland.
After all, the Thunder rank 6th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and have scored 117.8 points per 100 possessions this season.
In addition, the Thunder have added a 55.5% effective field goal percentage and have turned the ball over just 12% of the time.
Oklahoma City isn’t super effective on the offensive glass and won’t get to the foul line often. However, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed 31.6% of offensive rebounds and a 21.1 free throw rate.
With Isiah Hartenstein back for the Thunder. Oklahoma City has some height and more ability to rebound inside. Plus. Deandre Ayton won’t play for the Blazers, hurting Portland’s depth inside.
If the Thunder can improve on the offensive glass and get to the foul line more consistently, the sky is the limit offensively for the Thunder.
It’s All About Second Chances For Portland!
The Portland Trail Blazers aren’t known for their offense. Ultimately, they’re not known for much since they’ve won just 17 games this season. The Blazers have scored just 109 points per 100 possessions and have added a 52.1% effective field goal percentage.
That might continue.
The turnovers could get really bad, too, especially since the Thunder have added 19% of turnovers while the Blazers have given up 16.4%.
With that in mind, the Blazers have one area where they can exploit the Thunder.
That’s on the glass. The Thunder have allowed 30.1% of offensive rebounds, while the Blazers have earned 30.3%. Again, Ayton won’t be out there, but Donovan Clingan has been a force on the glass over the last four games and should be able to continue that dominant play tonight.
With a lot of second chances, the Blazers can undoubtedly stick around in this game. The field goal percentage won’t be nearly as high as Oklahoma City, but you’d have to imagine being home will help.
The Thunder have also allowed a 21.7 free-throw rate. The Blazers may get to the foul line more often than they typically do, which will be another key in this game.
The Picks
The Thunder beat the Blazers in two earlier meetings this year. Oklahoma added a 137-114 win on November 1 and earned a 109-99 victory at home on November 20.
These two teams haven’t played since. Portland is currently on a four-game winning streak, including three road wins against Charlotte, Orlando, and Miami. Let’s at least give them credit here.
Portland is playing well enough that a 13.5-point spread feels way too many points for the road team. Therefore, let’s side with the AI Model and back the Blazers at +13.5. We should also consider the Over 225.5 at -110 NBA odds, given how well this matchup is for the Thunder and how hot the Blazers have been offensively over the last handful of games.
You can even consider a same-game parlay with these two bets. Just thank the AI Model when these two plays cash in tonight!
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +13.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Over 225.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
