The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians will play in Game 5 of the ALDS at 1:08 PM ET. Whoever wins this game will face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. The loser will head home and wait for Spring Training.
With all hands on deck, the Tigers will roll with their phenom pitcher, Tarik Skubal. Meanwhile, the Guardians have decided on Matthew Boyd. Both pitchers are lefties, but only one team has had more success against lefties.
However, the loser will be sent home to the couches for the rest of the postseason.
Our AI Model suggests this game will finish 3.8-3.8. However, with the total stuck at 6 via Caesars, the Over is clearly the most valuable play. Backing the Guardians at +1.5 also isn’t a terrible option, given that the model thinks the game is tied.
Picks Summary
- Guardians +1.5 (-190) at Bet365
- Over 6 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 01:08 PM ET at Progressive Field
Tarik Skubal Is Getting The Start
The Detroit Tigers will throw out their monster lefty, Tarik Skubal. Against the Guardians, Skubal is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA.
Over the last 30 days, he’s held his last 112 batters to a .047 ISO and wOBA of .176. He’s also earned 16% of swinging strikes and has struck out 30.4% of batters. However, Cleveland’s lineup has four batters with a high ISO and six batters with a high wOBA over the last 30 days against lefties.
After seeing Skubal earlier in the playoffs, the Guardians should be able to make some adjustments, especially at home. If they’re patient with Skubal, the Guardians can try and knock Skubal out by being patient at the plate.
Typically, Cleveland is too aggressive against lefties. The lineup has walked only 4.5% of the time against lefties over the last month.
But they’ll likely make that adjustment in this game. Being aggressive and not walking against Skubal was an issue in their earlier game. Expect a new strategy today.
Matthew Boyd Can Hold His Own
Detroit will send out Matthew Boyd. He pitched against the Tigers earlier in the postseason and allowed a 0.00 ERA. Boyd has given up a .162 ISO and wOBA of .406 to his last 44 righties. However, the Tigers’ offense isn’t much of a threat against lefties.
Detroit’s offense has hit a .079 ISO and wOBA of .294 with 30.1% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month.
It’s unlikely the Tigers will dominate offensively against Boyd. But they’ll likely tack on one or two runs to help the Over hit in this game. After all, Boyd’s numbers against righties aren’t elite, and the Tigers have six righties in the projected lineup tonight.
The main contributor has actually been Riley Greene, but he’s a lefty who has hit lefties well. On the other hand, Boyd hasn’t allowed much success to lefties.
The only area where Boyd has really struggled against both sides of the plate is walks. The Tigers haven’t been insanely clutch against lefties. Still, they’ll likely find a way to add a couple of runs to at least make today’s game competitive.
MLB Computer Pick
At home, the Guardians will likely find a way to win this game against Tarik Skubal. The offense will come, whether it’s early in the game against Skubal or against the Tigers’ bullpen when Skubal is knocked out of the game.
Conversely, the Tigers haven’t shown off much offense against lefties over the last 30 days. But that doesn’t stop the fact that the Tigers have ultimately found ways to score and are in a Game 5 of the ALDS after a subpar start to the season. This team has magic and should at least fight with a couple of runs here and there.
That said, I’m with the AI Model. Back the Guardians +1.5 (-190) at Bet365 and also take the Over 6 at +100 MLB odds via Caesars. Both teams should make adjustments after failing to score an earned run against either pitcher last time. It’ll be a different kind of game this time around.
MLB Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-190) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
MLB Pick: Over 6 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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