The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Monday night’s matchup between the Titans and Dolphins.
Now, I get that these two teams possess negligible appeal due to their offensive deficiencies.
However, betting can make even the most dreadful game entertaining. And we do have a great bet for you to place in order to boost your bankroll.
NFL Pick: Titans ML (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
Monday, September 30, 2024- 07:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Will Tyler Huntley Start?
No matter who starts at quarterback for Miami on Monday night, our bet on the Titans will be in good shape because the concussed Tua Tagovailoa won’t be the starter.
Miami has one other competent quarterback on its roster. Tyler Huntley, however, only just joined the team following Tagovailoa’s injury. NFL playbooks are big, complicated things, and each team has a unique one. There’s simply no way that he could have absorbed much of Miami’s specific playbook in such a brief amount of time. In addition to having to learn the plays, he has yet to develop chemistry with any of his wide receivers.
To give an example of my point, think back to Week 1 when Atlanta played Pittsburgh. The Falcons starters did not have any preseason time together, so their offense was anemic. They mustered ten points and 226 yards of offense.
It takes time, in actual games, for a quarterback to develop chemistry with his wide receivers, and Huntley hasn’t played a snap for Miami and is a lesser passer than Atlanta’s starting quarterback.
The offensive line, too, will benefit from understanding the quarterback whom it’s protecting. Miami’s blockers, though, have yet to try to protect Huntley.
So, if Huntley were to start, we’d see a basic offense — which will be very easy for the defensive coordinator to figure out how to stifle — and a total absence of chemistry in the offense.
Miami’s Other Quarterback Options
The other healthy quarterbacks on Miami’s roster can hardly be said to be NFL-caliber.
Skylar Thompson, who is anyhow banged up with a rib injury that might prevent him from playing, is Miami’s current number-one option. Thompson is ridiculously inaccurate, that is if he even manages to overcome his disposition to hesitate and hold onto the ball. His in-game IQ is also abysmal, as evident in the ludicrous decisions he makes as a passer.
Given his deficiencies, in his career, he completes less than 60% of his passes despite attempting mostly short passes and has thrown three interceptions to one touchdown.
Tim Boyle is actually even worse. He is Thompson’s backup. Boyle has thrown twelve interceptions to four touchdowns in his career.
What About Miami’s Wide Receivers?
No doubt, Miami has an excellent pair of wide receivers.
However, because they lack a quarterback to get them the ball, we don’t have to worry about them.
Superstar Tyreek Hill, for example, has been an utter non-factor. Since Week 2, he has accumulated a combined total of six receptions for 64 yards.
Tennessee anyhow has one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Among cornerbacks, L’Jarius Sneed received the fifth-most votes for the All-Pro team last year. Sneed reliably limits wide receivers, even when they have competent quarterbacks throwing to them, to fewer than five receptions and 50 yards in a given game.
He matches up well against Tyreek given the latter’s reliance on being very fast. Sneed has accomplished a sub-4.40 40-yard dash time.
Miami’s Pass Protection and Run Game
Miami’s offensive line has declined significantly this year, negatively impacting both its pass and rush attacks.
One big reason for this decline is the offseason departure of Connor Williams, whom PFF graded as the top run-blocking and the ninth-best pass-blocking center last year. Currently, the Dolphins rank in the bottom half in sack percentage and 25th in rushing yards per game.
Even very talented running backs like De’Von Achane are helpless given the offensive line’s limitations.
A Look At The Scores
Since Tagovailoa went down in the third quarter against Buffalo, Miami has scored a combined total of three points in its last six quarters. In their last game, the Dolphins mustered three points against Seattle.
Now, Seattle has a good defense, but it’s also benefitted from facing the NFL’s most inexperienced, most anemic, and otherwise worst quarterbacks.
The Seahawks conceded 20 points to the Bo Nix-led Broncos, whose poor quarterback play is amplified by his absence of dangerous pass-catching weapons, and 20 points to the Patriots, who likely possess the most untalented offense in all of football.
Miami’s output of three points represents a significant contrast to what low-talent Denver and New England offenses were able to accomplish.
Tennessee’s Defense
Tennessee will also be one of the toughest tests for Miami’s offense thus far, as the Titans boast the fifth-ranked defense.
In addition to Sneed, they have talented, well-sized defensive linemen especially in the interior but also in general who ably limit opposing rush attacks and pressure the quarterback.
Opposing quarterbacks struggle to move the ball downfield against Tennesse’s defense, which is doing the fourth-best job at limiting opposing yards per pass attempt.
While the Titans have relied on Harold Landry too much for their pass-rushing, Thompson also gets sacked a lot of times in part because he lacks good instincts and frequently helps the defense out by drifting into its pressure.
Moreover, Tennessee has done a great job of containing opposing running backs, as evident in their typical struggle to advance the ball at a decent yard-per-play rate.
What Happened Last Week?
Tennessee’s last game, a blowout loss to Green Bay, might deter betters from trusting the Titans. However, Tennessee’s blowout loss does not reflect its capabilities. Instead, it is a consequence of the occasional game-planning mishaps that must be expected from an unproven head coach.
Needing to bounce back from the awful performance, expect Tennessee’s head coach to be extra motivated to come up with a strong game plan for Monday’s game.
It is obvious that he will fix what went wrong in the Green Bay game. Specifically, Tennessee gave up too easily on running the ball.
Now, the Packers run defense has been stiff, effectively limiting mobile quarterbacks and, when the opponent lacks a mobile quarterback, starting running backs.
But the Titans need to get their run game going in order to keep their young developing quarterback from carrying too great a burden on his shoulders. Tennessee’s ability to score enough points on Monday will hinge on the success of its rush attack.
Miami’s Vulnerable Run Defense
I like Tennessee’s offense in this game because it will be able to rely on its rush attack against Miami’s defense.
The Dolphins, in three games thus far, have allowed Seattle backup running back Zach Charbonnet to rush 18 times for 91 yards (5.1 YPC) and two touchdowns, Buffalo starting running back James Cook to amass 78 rushing yards on eleven carries (7.1 YPC) and two rushing touchdowns, and Jacksonville backup running back Tank Bigsby to run for 73 yards on 6.1 YPC.
Opposing running backs are thriving against Miami’s defense. Tennessee will be able to lean on Tony Pollard, who was Dallas’ starting running back last year, and Tyjae Spears.
Both are helping Tennessee to have one of the NFL’s more efficient rush attacks despite the tough competition that it has faced.
Quarterback Will Levis will be able to play conservatively because he is facing a team whose offense won’t push him and because he’ll get plenty of support from his running backs as well as from his wide receivers, who will benefit from Miami’s underperforming defensive back group and its pass rush that ranks 22nd in sacks per game.
Tennessee’s Offensive Outputs
For all of the criticism that especially Levis gets, the fact is that he has helped his offense along to respectable performances.
Keep in mind that the Titans have repeatedly faced tough defenses. While they scored 14 last week, they didn’t get to possess the ball much and they didn’t lean on their strength, which is running the ball.
Tennessee scored 17 points against Chicago’s eighth-ranked defense and 17 against the Jets’ seventh-ranked defense — at the end of the game, the Titans were also close to scoring 24 against the Jets.
Whereas Miami is barely scoring at all, Tennessee is putting up respectable numbers against strong defenses, and Miami’s defense is rather vulnerable to what the Titans want to accomplish offensively.
Takeaway
Miami’s offense looks lost and hopeless. It does not look close to being able to place itself on a level with the NFL’s other worst offenses. It lacks the quarterback and offensive line quality to find the end zone.
Tennessee’s anyhow strong defense, stout as it is against the run and effective overall, will keep Miami’s scoring output very low.
On offense, the Titans won’t have to do as much as they’ve already done against uniquely strong defenses.
Still, their rush attack has a great outlook, which will help Levis remain efficient, as he continues to help his offense sustain drives even when facing very talented cornerbacks.
NFL Pick: Titans ML (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
