Picks Summary
- Aaron Hicks to Get a Hit (-120) at Bet365
- Oswaldo Cabrera to Get a Hit (-155) at Bet365
- Jose Trevino to Get a Hit (-170) at Bet365
Getting value from the New York Yankees isn’t easy. This is one of the most public teams in the world of sports, one that’s currently 0.06 betting units in the hole at press time despite starting the year at 10-7.
Good thing we’re not betting on Aaron Judge. Instead, the targets for our latest batch of MLB player props are the less famous players at the bottom of the Yankee batting order.
And the first shall be last; Aaron Hicks offers the most value of the three, batting ninth and priced at -120 on the overseas MLB lines to get a hit this Thursday off the Los Angeles Angels.
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, April 20, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
What Happened to Aaron Hicks?
There was a time, not that long ago, when Hicks was right there in the middle of everything. From 2017 through 2020, Hicks was an integral part of the Yankees lineup; then he had Tommy John surgery, and wrist surgery, and now Hicks is New York’s No. 4/5 outfielder.
Harrison Bader (oblique) happens to be injured right now, as are DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) and several others, so that leaves room in the batting order for Hicks. His 3-for-24 start is obviously not great, but we’re getting solid value at -120, with Hicks projected for 0.79 hits at FantasyData.
Nice Matchup
There’s reason to be optimistic. For one, Hicks has an unusually small .200 BABIP, well below his career .269 average. For another, projected Angels starter Patrick Sandoval (11 hits allowed in three games) has a .217 BABIP against, again substantially lower than his .289 lifetime average.
As it turns out, Hicks is 1-for-1 versus Sandoval with an RBI triple, although that’s a very small sample size to base any conclusions on. Let’s hope that wasn’t a fluke; if Hicks can’t solve Sandoval this Thursday, he’ll have to get that hit we need against the No. 5-ranked bullpen on the WAR charts at FanGraphs.
Some warm weather would help us out. Thursday’s report calls for afternoon temperatures in the high 60s under partly sunny skies, so that’s good news for us – although the light winds blowing from first to third aren’t ideal.
Add it all up, and in our estimation, Hicks is definitely worth betting a single unit of your bankroll on this Thursday.
MLB Pick: Aaron Hicks to Get a Hit (-120) at Bet365
Who Is Oswaldo Cabrera?
He’s the guy who replaced Hicks as New York’s starting left fielder. Cabrera was a third baseman when he made his debut for the Yankees last August, but he ended up playing six positions in total during his 44 games before nailing down a starting gig this offseason.
Well, maybe “nailing down” is a bit generous. Cabrera is 12-for-49 (,245 BA) this year with a tiny .541 OPS, although we don’t care about his slugging – all we need is that one base hit, and FantasyData has Cabrera down for 0.96 hits, making his -155 payout on the MLB odds board worth risking a single unit on.
This will be the first go-around for Cabrera and Hicks, or Cabrera and just about everyone in the Angels bullpen, so these projections might be of more limited use than normal; it also doesn’t help that Cabrera typically bats seventh for New York.
One more caveat: The switch-hitting Cabrera will presumably bat right-handed against the southpaw Sandoval, but Cabrera is 2-for-9 from that side, compared to 10-for-40 batting lefty. But at least the weather will be warm, and Sandoval will be pitching from the stretch if the meat of the Yankees order gets on base ahead of Cabrera.
MLB Pick: Oswaldo Cabrera to Get a Hit (-155) at Bet365
Is Jose Trevino Still an All-Star?
It’s a miracle he got there in the first place. Trevino has always been an amazing defensive catcher, but he snuck onto the 2022 AL All-Star team as a reserve in his first year with the Yankees after posting a .714 OPS; that went down to .626 OPS during the second half of the season, more in line with Trevino’s .645 career OPS.
Anyway, Trevino is only 7-for-33 (.212 BA) to start the 2023 campaign (with a .222 BABIP), mostly batting eighth, and he’s 0-for-5 lifetime versus Sandoval. But Trevino will pay out at -170 with just one hit this Thursday – assuming Kyle Higashioka doesn’t catch for the Yankees instead, as FantasyData projects. Keep an eye on the newswires to see who starts, and bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Jose Trevino to Get a Hit (-170) at Bet365
