In light of the recent development where former President Donald Trump posted a $175 million bond, the 2024 US election odds remain relatively unchanged, with Trump maintaining his lead over incumbent President Joe Biden, as indicated by odds makers at top sportsbooks.
Trump’s move to post the bond is crucial for his ongoing pursuit of the White House in November. It serves to prevent New York Attorney General Tish James from freezing his assets during the appeals process, which could extend for months or even years.
Trump is favored to win by political handicappers, with odds ranging between -104 and -115 at various partner shops. Over the past year, Trump has consistently held the position of the favorite, with his odds improving from around +150 to their current standing.
Conversely, Biden’s odds have seen a modest improvement, going from +200 to +105 to +130, independent of Trump’s legal issues.
Remember that, since betting on politics is not legally allowed in the US, we referenced these odds from operators where it is regulated, such as Canada and the UK. The following are courtesy of SportsInteraction Canada.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 54.55% |
| Joe Biden | +130 | 43.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.96% |
Civil Fraud Case
On April 1st, Trump posted a $175 million bond in his New York civil fraud case, following a $354.8 million penalty issued by Justice Arthur Engoron. The penalty was imposed after Engoron found Trump guilty of orchestrating business fraud by inflating his net worth to secure favorable rates from financial institutions and insurers.
Initially set at $454 million, the bond amount was adjusted to $175 million by a New York appeals court on March 25th.
Trump secured the bond through Knight Specialty Insurance Company, a California-based entity chaired by Don Hankey. Trump’s collateral for the loan comprises a combination of cash and investment-grade bonds.
This marks the second bond Trump has had to secure this year, the first being a $91.6 million bond in his civil defamation case with writer E. Jean Carroll.
Upcoming Events
April is poised to be a pivotal month, with significant events on the horizon that could impact both Trump’s and Biden’s campaigns. On April 15th, Trump faces a criminal trial in New York for falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels. This trial is the only one of Trump’s four criminal cases scheduled to begin before Election Day on November 5th.
Additionally, on April 16th, the Supreme Court will hear a case concerning charges related to the January 6th, 2021 events, which could have implications for Trump’s federal criminal case. Finally, on April 25th, the Supreme Court will consider Trump’s claim that he cannot be prosecuted for actions taken during his presidency, potentially delaying his federal election-subversion case until after the elections.
Odds Movement
Despite criticism for his stance on Israel, Biden’s odds have shown signs of improvement following his State of the Union address. It is evident that Biden’s age and cognitive abilities will not pose an issue, solidifying his position as the Democratic candidate for November.
This assurance has affected the odds of other potential Democratic candidates, including Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama, who were once seen as contenders but are now considered long shots by oddsmakers.
Lastly, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made waves recently by announcing lawyer and tech entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.
Although Kennedy’s odds have slightly shortened since the announcement, from +2500 to +3300, the move could bolster his support in the short term, enabling him to access more ballots, as nearly half of the states require a mandatory VP nomination for participation.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
