Editor’s Note 5/30: Donald Trump has been found guilty of all 34 counts against him by a jury of his peers in the N.Y. Hush Money Trial.
In a pivotal moment in American political history, the trial of former President Donald Trump commenced on April 15th, 2024, marking the first instance of a former or sitting president facing criminal charges.
The trial, centered around allegations of hush money payments, will unfold in Manhattan, New York, casting a shadow over Trump’s political ambitions as the presumptive presidential nominee for the GOP.
Despite his legal challenges, Trump had consistently maintained a lead over Biden in most polls so far this year, as well as in the 2024 presidential election odds. However, following a robust performance in March and continuing into April, incumbent President Joe Biden has narrowed the gap with his former rival in the 2020 elections.
Remember that, since betting on politics is not legally allowed in the US, we referenced these odds from operators where it is regulated, such as Canada and the UK. The following are courtesy of SportsInteraction Canada.
Now, let’s review the fundamentals of Trump’s trial and examine its potential implications for the betting markets in the coming months.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 54.55% |
| Joe Biden | +130 | 43.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.96% |
The Allegations
At the heart of the trial lies accusations that Trump, along with his then-lawyer Michael Cohen, engaged in a scheme during the 2016 presidential elections to conceal a payment of $130,000 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
This payment was purportedly aimed at silencing Daniels regarding alleged affair allegations. Trump faces a total of 34 felony counts, for falsifying business records in connection to this payment.
Legal Outlook
While the charges against Trump are significant, legal experts caution against expecting severe repercussions. Classified as “Class E felonies,” the charges carry a maximum sentence of four years each.
However, the absence of prior felony convictions and the lack of allegations involving physical violence suggest that a sentence of probation is the most probable outcome, according to legal analysts.
Even in the event of a conviction, the likelihood of Trump serving jail time appears remote. The courts could grant bail during the appeals process, allowing him to continue his political endeavors.
Given that constitutional provisions do not exclude a convicted individual from assuming the presidency, any potential prison sentence will likely be postponed until after the 2028 elections.
Impact on the Political Landscape
Despite the trial, its immediate impact on the electoral landscape remains uncertain. The latest polls indicate a tightening race between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden. However, a recent study found that the result of this trial will have a small impact on the minds of voters, come November.
Meanwhile, Biden’s resurgence in popularity follows a strong performance in March and April, bolstered by positive economic indicators and his notable State of the Union address.
A recent survey by the New York Times and Siena College revealed a mere one-point advantage for Trump over Biden, marking a significant decline from previous polling figures. Similarly, odds for Biden’s presidential candidacy have seen a notable decrease, reflecting a shifting sentiment among both voters and oddsmakers.
As the hush money trial unfolds and political dynamics evolve, the race for the presidency continues to intensify. While Trump’s legal troubles may have initially buoyed Biden’s prospects, the fluidity of the political landscape underscores the unpredictability of electoral outcomes.
