Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Best Bets, Preview, and Breakdown

Tyson Fury, the current WBC Heavyweight Champion, and Francis Ngannou, a former UFC 265-pound titleholder, are set to face off in a unique 10-round exhibition boxing match this Saturday night (October 28, 2023).

The event will take place at Boulevard Hall in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of an exciting ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV) card. Additionally, the card will showcase the British heavyweight title fight between Fabio Wardley and David Adeleye.

Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the Battle of the Baddest main event clash between Fury and Ngannou, including updated boxing odds and our free expert boxing betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Our Top Betting Pick for Fury vs. Ngannou

• Over 4½ Rounds (-122) at Unibet

Fury vs. Ngannou: Battle of the Baddest

• When: Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT
• Where: Boulevard Hall, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• Scheduled Bouts: 7
• Main Event: Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou
• Moneyline Probability: Fury – 93.4% (-185) Ngannou – 10.5% (+850)

Fury vs. Ngannou: Tale of the Tape

Heavyweight Boxing Main Event Profiles

Tyson “The Gypsy King” Fury

The Gypsy King has a height of six feet nine inches (206cm) and a weight of approximately 258 pounds, although his weight has fluctuated significantly over time. No man on Earth can make Fury appear small.

He has participated in 204 rounds of boxing, resulting in an average fight duration of 6.4 rounds. His considerable size provides an obvious advantage in the ring; many of his past opponents have struggled against his 85-inch reach.

Fury employs a traditional orthodox stance, relying on his right hand for powerful strikes. Still, despite his size, Fury defies expectations by exhibiting nimbleness and is one of the best dancers in the squared circle.

It’s no surprise that Fury accepted the circus show bout, much like Ngannou, he’s taking a huge bag home. But unlike Ngannou, he’s entering the contest knowing 99% of the advantages side with him.

Fury Best Moneyline Odds: -1430 at Unibet

Francis “The Predator” Ngannou

When you first lay eyes on Ngannou, you’ll immediately notice that he possesses a formidable physique. Standing tall at six feet four inches (193cm) and weighing in at 250 pounds (113 kilograms), with an impressive reach of 83 inches (211 cm), he truly embodies the term “beast.” Aptly nicknamed “The Predator,” this Cameroonian fighter effortlessly dispatches his opponents inside the octagon.

Renowned as the world’s hardest puncher, it’s wise for his adversaries to avoid his powerful fists. To date, Ngannou has participated in 20 UFC matches, boasting an impressive record of 17 wins and three defeats. Notably, 12 of his victories (71%) have come by way of knockout or technical knockout, leaving his opponents dazed and confused. Additionally, he has secured four wins (24%) through submissions, while the judges decided a mere one victory (6%).

A Big-Money Payday

During the past week, it was disclosed that Ngannou is set to receive a staggering $10 million for his upcoming fight, which marks a significant rise compared to the reported $600,000 he earned from his last UFC match against Ciryl Gane. Thus, it’s not surprising that he’s taking the bag in a contest that heavily disfavors a chance of victory.

Ngannou Best Moneyline Odds: +850 at Unibet

Skillset Analysis: The Sweet Science

Technicalities are out the window. It’s the world’s hardest puncher desperately hunting a knockout versus one of the most skilled, agile, and accomplished heavyweight boxers in the sport’s history.

Even with Fury’s potential to lack peak physical condition, his unconventional movements and agility will still pose a significant challenge for Ngannou. Fury’s ability to take a punch remains strong, and the strategic footwork he employs enhances the impact of his strikes. Unlike Ngannou, Fury has never faced difficulties with his endurance, and with no cage to rely on, this bout could become fiercely intense after several rounds.

There’s Only One Way

While Ngannou’s only real chance of winning lies in his raw power, Fury has proven his ability to hold his own against formidable punchers.

When facing the skilled striking credentials of Ciryl Gane, Ngannou found himself evenly matched for the first two rounds on his feet before successfully taking the fight to the ground with four takedowns. He then maintained top control for almost eight minutes out of the final 15.

That possibility does not exist in this scenario. Thus, when evaluating his boxing abilities, he holds no significance. It’s Ngannou’s fight to lose, with the smallest percentage chance that Ngannou somehow catches Fury with an early walk-off KO.

Over 4.5 Rounds: The Best Bet Formula

The available odds at OddsTrader’s top betting sites have placed Fury as a huge betting favorite, and the 93% implied probability is just.

There are unfounded assertions suggesting that Ngannou has a mere “puncher’s chance.” Still, I can also deliver resembling optimism by suggesting the New England Patriots will make the playoffs and win the 2024 Super Bowl. But the reality is, it isn’t happening.

Ngannou’s likelihood of victory is non-existent, but this fight still holds significance as an event. However, it lacks competitiveness. Numerous sanctioned contests of this nature have taken place before. Those who ardently support MMA may hope for a miracle, but their beliefs are misguided and unfortunate.

Unfortunately, the oddsmakers weren’t born yesterday, and they aren’t taking any chances on this moneyline. However, I’m seeing excellent value in the over 4.5 rounds available at Unibet for -110.

Survival Provides a Winning Bet

While I expect Fury to gift the Saudi fans with a KO/TKO victory, I also believe it won’t be achieved as soon as many think. He’ll spend a few rounds reading Ngannou’s approach, find his range, pop the jab, and play with his food before a finish surfaces.

For this reason, and because we have no value on the moneyline or Fury KO/TKO prop, backing Ngannou’s tested chin that has never crumbled to reach the fifth round for a $110 return on a Benjamin is a viable wagering approach.

Boxing Pick: Over 4½ Rounds (-122) at Unibet [1.22u to win 1u]

Battle of the Baddest Main Card & Odds

• Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou [Heavyweight main event bout, 10 rounds]
• Fabio Wardley vs. David Adeleye [Co-main heavyweight bout, 12 rounds]
• Joseph Parker vs. Simon Kean [10-round heavyweight bout]
• Martin Bakole vs. Carlos Takam [10-round heavyweight bout]
• Arslanbek Makhmudov vs. Junior Anthony Wright [10-round heavyweight bout]

Battle of the Baddest Preliminary Card & Odds

• Moses Itauma vs. Istvan Bernath [6-round heavyweight bout]
• Jack McGann vs. Alcibiade Duran [UFC heavyweight bout]

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.