Can UConn keep up with Florida in the second round of the NCAA Tournament? Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 152 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UConn Huskies vs. Florida Gators
Sunday, March 23, 2025 – 12:10 PM EDT at Lenovo Center
The Story So Far
UConn isn’t overpowering opponents the way it did in their last two NCAA Tournament runs, but when the moment called for it, the Huskies delivered defensively. A 67-59 grind-it-out win over Oklahoma on Friday showed that while this team has their flaws, they’re still tough to put away.
Solo Ball led the way with 14 points and five rebounds, Alex Karaban had 12 points and seven rebounds, and Tarris Reed Jr. added 12 points and seven rebounds off the bench.
On the other side, Florida barely broke a sweat in its 95-69 dismantling of Norfolk State on Friday. The real challenge comes now. The Gators likely would’ve preferred another crack at Oklahoma—a team they demolished 85-63 in SEC play.
Walter Clayton Jr. paced Florida with 23 points and five rebounds, Alijah Martin poured in 17 points, and Thomas Haugh contributed 13 points and four assists.
UConn isn’t the dominant force it was a year ago, and it’s certainly not the machine that bulldozed through the 2023 tournament. But the Huskies still have size, still defend at a high level, and still make life miserable for opponents when they crank up the intensity. Oklahoma felt that firsthand.
Rebounding remains UConn’s calling card, as the Huskies outrebounded the Sooners 41-34. However, their struggles at the free-throw line were uncharacteristic. Florida, on the other hand, has the physicality to compete on the glass, though it’s even shakier at the stripe.
Where the two teams truly differ is in style of play—Florida thrives in transition, while UConn prefers a more methodical approach.
At their best, UConn could turn a defensive stop into a lightning-quick transition bucket, stringing together game-breaking runs. That’s no longer a reliable weapon. Florida, however, has embraced that high-speed attack, forcing turnovers and turning them into instant offense.
UConn’s biggest issue? Keeping pace when the game turns into a track meet. Too many wasted possessions and unforced errors make it tough to survive against a team like Florida.
The Huskies are now 15-0 when holding teams under 68 points but just 8-10 when they don’t. Florida has only been held under that mark once, a bizarre 64-44 loss to Tennessee. It’s unlikely to happen again.
Keys to the Game
UConn thrives when they can dictate the tempo, slow things down, and control the boards. Against Oklahoma, the Huskies’ defense was the difference, keeping the Sooners to just 59 points. Florida, however, is built to push the pace. They rarely get bogged down in a low-scoring game, and if they can get out in transition, UConn may not have the offensive firepower to keep up.
UConn has been dominant on the glass, with Ball, Karaban, and Reed Jr. leading the charge. The Huskies overwhelmed Oklahoma on the boards, but Florida has the size and athleticism to at least make it a fight. If UConn controls second-chance opportunities, they can force the Gators into a half-court battle—a scenario that favors the Huskies.
Clayton put up 23 points against Norfolk State and is Florida’s most dangerous scorer. UConn made life difficult for Oklahoma’s guards, but turnovers and inefficient possessions have been a recurring problem. If Clayton and Martin capitalize on those mistakes and push the tempo, UConn could find itself on its heels.
Florida feasts on opponent miscues, and UConn has been prone to stretches of sloppy play. If the Gators can force a few key turnovers at the right time, they could trigger a run that shifts the game in their favor.
NCAA Tournament Pick
Expect UConn to set the tone early with rebounding and defense, but Florida’s tempo will gradually take over. The Huskies will have a window late in the second half where they appear to be in control, but costly turnovers will allow the Gators to seize momentum. In the end, Florida’s ability to push the pace will be the difference. I like the Under as the total is a bit high.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 152 (-110) at Bet365
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