BETTING

UFC 288 Sterling vs. Cejudo Best Bets: Cejudo Returns With a Striking Battle

By OddsTrader
Last Update May 4, 2023

Henry Cejudo Dominick Cruz UFC 249 — Henry Cejudo of the United States celebrates after defeating Dominick Cruz of the United States in their bantamweight title fight during UFC 249 Douglas P DeFeliceGetty ImagesAFP

UFC Top Picks

Sterling/Cejudo – Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-134) at BetMGM
Gilbert Burns ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook

At UFC 288 in New Jersey, will see the return of former two-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo. He’ll step straight back into title contention and challenge Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight strap.

Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad will lead the evening co-main event dance, as the winner is expected to be the next challenger for Leon Edwards’ welterweight belt.

Let’s waste no more time, as we’ve selected the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 288 main and co-main events.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

UFC 288 Bantamweight Championship Bout

Saturday, May 06, 2023 – 11:50 PM EDT at Prudential Center

Almost three years to the day, Henry Cejudo (16-2-1) returns to the UFC bantamweight division and attempts to reclaim the championship he never lost. Life as a titleholder has been all too familiar during Cejudo’s combat sports career. Still, following a long layoff, many questions surround the former Olympic gold medalist and two-division UFC champion.

Aljamain Sterling (22-3-0) is just one of many fighters that Cejudo has trolled, but he’s received the golden ticket. He will have an opportunity to silence the arrogant nature of his opponent.

While Cejudo has been inactive, Sterling has choked out Cory Sandhagen, captured the 135 lb strap from Petr Yan, successfully defended it in a rematch with Yan, and then stopped former champion T.J. Dillashaw in a second successive title defense.

Sterling vs. Cejudo: Fight Tape Analysis

It’s simple to say Cejudo is a world-class wrestler and Sterling is an elite BJJ practitioner, but the truth is, both men are much more than their primary bases.

Of course, wrestling will likely be a part of Cejudo’s game plan, and Sterling will utilize his BJJ and wrestling experience to defend these situations. However, as their primary skillsets both involve forms of grappling, we could be in for a stand-up war.

On the feet, Sterling will own the size advantage, a factor I expect to be crucial. With that said, while he can keep Cejudo at a distance with jabs and deep kicks, he isn’t known for his offensive striking power.

Pick and Prediction

The UFC odds at the top sportsbooks believe this fight will go the distance, as the line is juiced towards this outcome. And if we consider our above expectations, a striking battle will likely lead this fight through all five rounds.

Cejudo packs power in his punches, but I simply don’t believe he’ll find himself on the inside of Sterling. It’ll be a battle of nutrition and output, but either way, the durability and noteworthy cardio levels of each fighter will take this bout to the judge’s scorecards.

UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance/Yes (-134) [1.34u returns 1u profit] at BetMGM

Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad

UFC 288 Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, May 06, 2023 – 11:25 PM EDT at Prudential Center

Don’t look now, but Gilbert Burns (22-5-0) is back for his third octagon appearance in 2023. The top-ranked Brazilian welterweight has nothing to prove. Still, he’s unquestionably aiming to become the next challenger for the championship, and a success story involving Belal Muhammad would definitely assist him.

Muhammad (22-3-0) isn’t the most electric in-cage performer, and his style isn’t always appreciated. However, he knows how to win fights and has been doing this since his last loss in 2019. Nine contests later, Belal is riding an 8-fight win streak with one no-contest, but can he prove the doubters wrong once again?

Burns vs. Muhammad: Fight Tape Analysis

Respectfully, it’s never easy to wager on Belal’s style. He’s incredibly susceptible to fast and explosive strikers. Watching Leon Edwards piece him apart for five minutes before the bout ended in a no-contest is my main takeaway for his upcoming clash with Burns.

While Burns doesn’t have the technical kickboxing skills of Edwards, he will own a speed and power advantage over Belal, who’ll need a wrestling offense to give himself a chance of success.

Considering the world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background of Burns and an expected striking advantage, I expect “Durinho” to outclass and outperform Belal in striking exchanges – an area of the fight I expect to play out the most.

Pick and Prediction

The UFC prices at OddsTrader aren’t showing much value on Belal since Burns dropped from an opening line of -180 to -125. The tight moneyline odds aren’t surprising, especially considering Belal’s recent successes.

However, the momentum is heavily riding Burns. He’s already fought twice in 2023 and dominated both Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal. I don’t visualize Belal as a threat against opponents that can successfully break from clinch and takedown situations. In addition, the value side has a greater chance of success in a stand-up battle.

UFC Pick: Gilbert Burns ML (-125) [1.25u returns 1.12u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook